Lamu port traffic surges but growth may be fleeting

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A group of maritime experts has downplayed the recent increase in cargo volumes at Port Lamu, describing it as a temporary surge that is likely to decline once the conflict in the Middle East subsides.

They argue that instead of relying on short-term gains, there is a need for a sustainable, long-term strategy to position Lamu as a leading shipping hub, particularly in the transshipment sector, given its ability to accommodate post-Panamax vessels.

Following the escalation of tensions in the Middle East, involving the United States and Israel against Iran, the Port of Lamu has experienced a notable rise in cargo traffic, much of it redirected due to security concerns affecting shipping routes in the region.

A critical question continues to shape discussions around Lamu Port, Kenya’s second seaport after Mombasa.

Andrew Mwangura, a maritime consultant and former Secretary General of the Seafarers Union of Kenya (SUK), poses a key concern: "Will Lamu port’s long-term success be anchored on global disruptions or should it not cultivate its own stable and predictable growth path.

He observes that shifts in international trade, driven by geopolitical tensions, supply chain changes, or maritime insecurity in other regions, have at times redirected vessel traffic to the relatively new port. While such developments often spark optimism, he cautions that they also call for deeper reflection on what truly sustains a port’s prosperity over the long term.

''Ports, by their very nature, are long-term investments. Their success is built not on episodic gains but on consistency, efficiency and trust," he said. 

He notes that although global disruptions can create temporary opportunities, they cannot serve as a dependable foundation for sustained growth. Instead, they should highlight Lamu’s untapped potential and its strategic significance within the broader maritime sector.

But other stakeholder's contradicts Mwangura's sentiments.  Mohamed Yusuf, chairman of Spears Shipping Company, says any legal port business is worth celebrating.

"We are seeing a surge in traffic, and this could help build up the fortunes of this three-berth facility, which has greater potential with its natural depth harbour that could take in any kind of vessel that sails the world oceans today," Mohamed said.

Tourism consultant Edward Matovu said that as the profile of Lamu grows with its transhipment status growing day by day, it is important to start marketing the facility to global cruise ship companies.

"Lamu's rich cultural heritage could be tapped to attract them, any cruise liners of different types and sizes that criss-cross the world's ocean waters visiting idyllic locations, Lamu could automatically become one of them," Matovu said.

 But Mwangura says the short-term excitement contradicts the intended purpose of the facility. 

As a cornerstone of the LAPSSET corridor, Lamu port was designed to open up northern Kenya and connect the country to regional markets such as Ethiopia and South Sudan.

'In doing so, it would offer the promise of expanding Kenya’s economic footprint and strengthening its role as a logistics hub along the western Indian Ocean. Realising this vision, however, requires continuous nurturing through practical, coordinated efforts,'' Mwangura said. He observes that one of the key considerations is connectivity. 

"A port does not operate in isolation; it thrives as part of an integrated transport and logistics network. Efficient road and rail links, along with complementary infrastructure such as pipelines and logistics hubs, are essential to ensuring that cargo can move seamlessly to and from the hinterland,'' stated Mwangura.

He adds that continued investment in these connections will, over time, strengthen Lamu’s competitiveness and its appeal to shipping lines.

"Equally important is the development of a reliable cargo base. Ports grow when they serve consistent and predictable trade flows. Encouraging regional trade partnerships, facilitating cross-border commerce and supporting industries that generate exports can all contribute to building this foundation. Such efforts help establish the steady volumes that shipping lines look for when making routing decisions, a critical factor in any port’s success,'' added Mwangura.

He reiterated that security and confidence also play a central role. Maritime trade, Mwangura sought to explain, depends heavily on predictability and assurance. 

Ongoing efforts to enhance maritime and inland security, paired with clear communication of these improvements, can help build confidence among investors, operators, and shipping lines. 

In this regard, consistency is key; confidence grows gradually through sustained and visible commitment.

At the same time, Mwangura noted that policy alignment is another important pillar. A supportive regulatory environment characterised by efficient customs processes, competitive tariffs, and clear incentives can significantly influence a port’s attractiveness. 

'When these elements work together harmoniously, they create an ecosystem that encourages trade and investment, ultimately benefiting the port and the broader economy,' he reaffirmed. 

Mwangura stressed further that it is also worth appreciating the inherent strengths that Lamu Port possesses, like its location offering proximity to major international shipping routes, presenting opportunities for reduced transit times on certain corridors. 

Additionally, he said, the availability of space for expansion provides flexibility for future growth, allowing the port to adapt to evolving trade dynamics. 

''These advantages, when combined with deliberate planning and sustained effort, position Lamu as a promising player in the region,'' he said.

He explained that the occasional influx of traffic during global disruptions should therefore be seen not as an endpoint, but as a learning opportunity. 

Such periods, Mwangura said, can offer valuable insights into operational readiness, capacity, and areas for improvement.

''By studying these experiences, stakeholders can better prepare the port to handle consistent volumes under normal conditions, turning fleeting moments into lasting lessons. Ultimately, the journey toward a thriving Lamu Port is a shared responsibility. It calls for coordinated action by government agencies, private sector players, regional partners, and local communities. Progress may at times be gradual, but it is through steady, deliberate steps that lasting success is achieved,'' he concluded.