Confusion rocks ODM as senior officials send mixed signals

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The ODM party’s mixed signals over its Presidential candidate in the 2027 General Election are raising eyebrows among its supporters across the country as party stalwarts issue conflicting statements.

While some ODM leaders say the party will field a presidential candidate ahead of the election, others contend that the party will not have a presidential candidate in the election.

The latest signal has come from the Co-operatives, Small and Medium Enterprises Development CS Wycliffe Oparanya, who said ODM will have a presidential candidate in the election.

Oparanya, who is an immediate former ODM deputy party leader, argued that ODM will remain an independent political party and it will have its presidential candidate. He was speaking when he met a section of party delegates at Cheranganyi.

He said ODM is still working with the UDA government, but the Orange party will soon begin discussions on how to work together in readiness for the general election.

Oparanya’s position has left ODM supporters more confused.

About a week ago, ODM leader Oburu Oginga announced that ODM will not field a presidential candidate.

Oburu, who spoke at Chiga Primary School in Homa Bay Town Constituency, said ODM had decided to support President William Ruto. He added that they were still going on with discussions on a power-sharing arrangement.

Political analysts say the mixed signals will work to the detriment of ODM.

Otieno Owida argued that Oparanya’s comments were meant for damage control after realising that Oburu’s earlier declaration would reduce the vibrancy of ODM.

“Oparanya is giving ODM supporters hope that ODM is still vibrant. But the reality is that ODM has an uncertain future,” Owida said.

He argued that the mixed signals will confuse ODM supporters, leading to an inability to give a single direction to the party supporters.

 “The situation where leaders give different directions confuses the party members.  It shows the party is headed in the wrong direction,” Owida added.

Political analysts also criticised any further negotiation expected between ODM and UDA parties.

University of Nairobi Lecturer Prof Herman Manyora said Oburu declared support for Ruto prematurely.

Prof Manyora argued that the declaration jeopardises ODM’s chances of getting good slots in their political arrangement with President Ruto.

“Those people are not negotiating for anything constructive. What are they negotiating for yet ODM members are traversing the country to sell Ruto’s ideologies?” Prof Manyora asked.

Political Strategist Dr Barrack Muluka argued that Oburu had done away with a threat that would make Ruto listen to their demands.

“Political negotiation takes place well only if there is a threat. But Oburu's declaration means ODM is no longer a threat to Ruto. Oburu has lowered ODM’s stakes,” Muluka said.

Some analysts opine that Oburu’s declaration has been informed by the good working relationship and cooperation through the broad-based government.

Lawyer John Apollo argues that the early declaration is a strategy for seeking government appointments and policy influence if President Ruto wins the election.

“Oburu’s intention is to get a reason for seeking positions in the  government if Ruto wins the presidency,” Apollo said.

George Otieno, an ODM supporter in Homa Bay, said the mixed signals had left them confused.

“We are getting confused by the leaders of our party,” Otieno said.