Kenya's political earthquake starts as nation lays Raila Odinga to rest

Today, Kenya stands at a historic political crossroads. The nation holds its breath as Raila Odinga is laid to rest; the air is thick with genuine grief and political uncertainty.

Across cities and villages, from the busy streets of Nairobi to the quiet shores of Lake Victoria, Kenyans from all walks of life are united in mourning. The man who defined Kenyan politics for generations is gone, and the elaborate State funeral ceremonies playing out across the country and on televisions nationally represent not just  a final farewell to a giant but the closing of a significant chapter in Kenya’s political history.

As the country lays him to rest today, the palpable sadness masks the beginning of a political earthquake that will reshape the nation’s landscape for years to come.

Raila Odinga was never just a politician. He was the central pillar supporting an entire ecosystem of political careers and strategies. With this pillar now removed, the entire structure of Kenyan politics begins to tremble. The man is gone, and in the coming weeks, months and years, the political lives of countless individuals who built their careers upon his coattails will begin their inevitable collapse.

The immediate impact of this political earthquake will be felt most acutely in Raila’s traditional stronghold of Nyanza region. For nearly three decades, the political formula here remained remarkably consistent and simple: demonstrate unwavering loyalty to Raila Odinga, secure his blessing, and electoral victory was virtually guaranteed.

An entire generation of Members of Parliament, senators, governors, and local representatives built their political careers on this fundamental principle. They operated, not on the strength of their individual accomplishments or distinctive political philosophies, but rather as extensions of the Odinga political brand.

These politicians functioned like planets orbiting a sun, deriving their political light and warmth from their central political star. Now, with that sun extinguished, these political satellites face the cold reality of having to generate their own political energy.

Next week, following today’s solemn interment, these political orphans will awaken to a harsh new reality where the old rules no longer apply. Their mourning represents not only genuine sorrow for the leader they revered but also deep anxiety for political careers that suddenly appear incredibly vulnerable.

The Orange Democratic Movement (ODM), which has long functioned more as Raila’s personal political vehicle than a conventional political party, now faces its greatest existential challenge.

Without Raila’s commanding presence to anoint successors, mediate internal conflicts, or unite the diverse factions within the party, the delicate coalition he held together through sheer force of personality appears poised for rapid fragmentation.

The coming weeks will likely reveal deep fissures within the party as various factions jockey for position and influence. These politicians, many of whom have never developed independent political identities, must now learn to stand on their own merits.

For the majority who built their careers primarily on proximity to power rather than principle or performance, this new political environment will prove particularly challenging. They will discover that without the protective shield of the Odinga name, they become vulnerable to challengers who may have deeper local connections or more compelling visions for their constituencies.

The shockwaves from this political earthquake extend far beyond Nyanza’s borders, creating an equally complex and potentially more dangerous situation for President William Ruto’s administration. In one of the great ironies of contemporary Kenyan politics, Ruto’s own carefully crafted political strategy for the 2027 elections paradoxically depended on Raila Odinga’s continued presence on the political stage.

True legacy

The President’s current very public role in orchestrating a dignified, State-managed funeral for his former rival represents a calculated political maneuver designed with multiple objectives in mind. Most importantly, Ruto hopes to demonstrate statesmanship and build bridges with the Luo community that has historically viewed him with suspicion.

By honouring their fallen hero with the full pomp and ceremony of State power, Ruto aims to present himself as a magnanimous national unifier rising above historical political divisions. The underlying calculation is straightforward: that this demonstration of respect will be remembered during the 2027 general elections, potentially translating into significant electoral support from a region that has consistently opposed him.

Raila’s sudden departure, however, fundamentally undermines the foundation of this sophisticated political outreach strategy. President Ruto’s entire approach to Nyanza in the upcoming election cycle was predicated on the assumption that Raila would remain available as either a negotiating partner or a political counterweight. The recent, though often tense, political dialogue between the two leaders formed part of this broader strategic calculation. With Raila gone, this carefully constructed equation collapses entirely.

President Ruto now finds himself without a central figure to engage with, without the single authoritative voice that could traditionally deliver the political allegiance of an entire region. The inevitable fragmentation of ODM’s leadership means he must now negotiate with multiple emerging leaders in Nyanza, each likely making increasingly strident demands to establish their nationalist credentials and consolidate their own political bases.

Furthermore, President Ruto has inadvertently lost his most effective political counterweight. For years, a significant portion of his political appeal, particularly in the Mt Kenya region and other areas historically skeptical of Raila, was built upon positioning himself as the reliable alternative to what he characterized as “Raila’s chaos.”

The fear of an Odinga presidency mobilized voters not just for Ruto, but also against a clearly defined alternative. With that powerful motivator suddenly removed from the political chessboard, President Ruto’s 2027 campaign loses one of its most potent unifying themes. The President now resembles a captain, whose primary navigational star has vanished, leaving him adrift in a vast and unpredictable political ocean without clear directional markers.

This unfolding political drama reveals a deeper, more systemic pathology within Kenyan politics, a problematic legacy inherited from the colonial administration’s divide-and-rule tactics.

The British colonial system governed primarily through reinforced ethnic identities and tribal chiefs, a governance model that post-independence politicians found convenient to maintain and exploit.

Raila Odinga, for all his progressive credentials, ultimately functioned as the preeminent political leader for the Luo community in this tribalized system. The systems of personality-driven, ethnic-based political mobilization remain firmly intact.

All indications suggest that new tribal champions will inevitably emerge to fill the void, and the Odinga political dynasty, with its deep historical roots and powerful brand recognition, remains in the strongest position to produce Raila’s political successor.

The true legacy of Raila Odinga’s passing,  therefore, may not be the political reconciliation President Ruto hopes to engineer, but rather the dawn of an unprecedented era of political realignment and uncertainty.

The king is dead. The fierce, unpredictable, and potentially transformative battle for his political crown begins in earnest tomorrow morning.

The Kenya that emerges from this struggle will be fundamentally different from the one we know today.