Why Raila's demise mirrors the end of Cold War in early 1990s

I have had four close encounters with late Raila Odinga. The first was in a forum for the National Economic and Social Council (NESC), a national think tank started by President Mwai Kibaki, but lately very silent.

Raila was the Prime Minister and a member of the council. I was a research fellow in the council.

Two at Strathmore University, three in a conference in an Upper Hill hotel in 2023, and lastly and indirectly visiting his family mausoleum, Kang’o ka Jaramogi, in Siaya two years ago.

The media was Raila’s home; it shaped his image and brand. His longevity, like an old university, contributed further to his brand and mystique.

In a strategy that often works, his background beyond politics was hazy. You can’t create a mystique when an open book.

Being enigmatic is part of building a personality cult. It can be emergent or deliberately generated.

A few hazy issues: how did living in the former East Germany influence Raila’s political views? How rich was he? His inscrutability made him more enigmatic.

Like Uhuru Kenyatta, Raila came from a well up family, but easily connected with the masses. One of their secrets, talking local languages. 

Enough digression. Why does Raila’s demise mirror the end of the Cold War, a standoff between two superpowers, the United States (US) and the USSR (former Soviet Union made of 15 republics and now free countries)

The Cold War standoff lasted for 40 years. Each of the superpowers had enough nuclear weapons to destroy the other. The weapons acted as a deterrent to war. Why attack another country and get destroyed at the same time? 

Kenya, after 1991, got into a similar political situation with multipartism. Raila and others quickly realised that owning a powerful political party was part of the political Cold War arsenal.

The party in power had been at peace with the powerful opposition party, lest both be destroyed.

Raila’s master stroke

Raila, with hindsight, soon realised that parties could not sustain a political Cold War.

They were fragile, and their leaders were easily manipulated or even bought outright.

This was, in my opinion was Raila’s master stroke; he went beyond parties to the masses. 

President Moi quickly saw the political implications of Raila’s mobilisation. Like big firms that buy out potential rivals, he brought Raila’s to his side, merging KANU with his party NDP (National Development Party). Who bought YouTube and WhatsApp? And why? 

Merging with KANU perhaps made Raila realise how much political leverage he held. And he never shied away from using it. To quote Winston Churchill, Raila never wasted a good crisis. His NDP merged with KANU when the ruling party was weak and its legitimacy was being questioned. 

Raila was done with Moi and supported Kibaki’s rise to power; remember Kibaki Tosha?  It seems Kibaki did not keep part of the deal. After the 2007 polls, the country was in turmoil.

Fearing destruction of the country, just like in the Cold War, Kibaki agreed to a truce with Raila as Prime Minister through the National Accord midwifed by Kofi Annan.

Raila realised he had political nuclear weapons. 

Next on the queue came President Uhuru Kenyatta. Unlike Kibaki, who got an overwhelming majority, over 60 per cent, Uhuru’s win was razor-thin. That made the political Cold War more potent.

It did not take long before Raila used his nuclear option and got a handshake. Curiously, unlike the handshake with President Ruto, Raila’s side did not get any cabinet post. What did he get? 

Never exhausted politically, Raila got support to vie for the presidency from Uhuru Kenyatta. But there was a problem, the handshake honeymoon lasted for too long as Ruto prepared his political drones.

He struck below the belt, with Raila-Uhuru paralysed by their socioeconomic class.

Cabinet posts

Remember the hustler-dynasty narrative? How could Uhuru and Raila defend themselves? Raila lost. But not without a fight, in court and streets.

Raila, like Russia after the  Cold War, kept his political nuclear weapons, the masses. President Ruto, too, fell under the spell of Raila’s political Cold War.

He got into a handshake with Raila, who extracted significant political blood with cabinet posts. The hustler-dynasty narrative got a slow puncture. 

Raila cemented his stature by building networks beyond the borders. And unlike other politicians, he controlled his political bloc, election or no election.

Raila hypnotised the masses. Beyond his oratory skills, he was the bastion of national justice.  

He moderated or checked the excesses of regimes across all the presidencies. On that, he has had no equal.

Genz revolts changed that perception. He was lukewarm and did not openly support Genz. Maybe he saw the dangers of a fragmented country; he had access to more intelligence than most of us.

May be had graduated into a political elder and a statesman. Maybe he was unwell. But his image got a blot.

Observers will note that towards the end of his life, Raila mellowed and became more accommodating.

We all do that as we grow older, perhaps conscious of our own mortality and legacy. He, too, was human. 

Raila’s long political shadow covered this country for so long that we never imagined his absence. At age 80, he has left us.

The way he calmed demonstrators in his backyard this year shows his bloc is intact.

The sea of mourners confirmed that, too. It’s a national tragedy that some mourners died mourning him.

What next?

The end of the Cold War ushered in an era of uncertainty and chaos as old grudges were settled and new countries emerged.

What will happen to Raila’s political base? Will it disintegrate like the former Soviet Union or Yugoslavia?

A bigger worry; without Raila’s political nuclear option, the government could now take greater control of our lives and shrink the freedom space. Remember, Raila played a role in ushering in multipartyism and the 2010 Constitution.

That brought the political and economic freedom we currently enjoy.

Will Raila’s demise bring in KANU II? Who is Raila’s heir? Does he have the political nuclear codes? What will happen to Raila’s political orphans? 

Who will be sucked into the political vacuum left by Raila?

What political resetting will follow his demise? In silence, will his long political shadow hang over the 2027 polls? May Jakom rest in peace (RIP).

Next week: Will Kenya enter a political and economic winter after Raila?