2027 elections: Will birth of new opposition upset the apple cart?

Over the years, Kenyan presidential elections have typically been based on ethnicity and favoured wealthy candidates with substantial resources.

The last three general elections held under the 2010 constitution saw a significant influx of cash from contestants in both the ruling parties and the opposition.

The 2027 presidential election is poised to be the most expensive in modern history.

But the rise of a new group of opposition figures like former Chief Justice David Maraga, Busia Senator Okiya Omtatah, Reuben Kigame, and human rights activist Boniface Mwangi who promote leftist views could be a game changer.

All four have declared their intention to run for the presidency, raising the question of whether their strong criticism of the current administration on social media can translate into a substantial number of votes to elevate one of them to the highest office.

Unlike traditional politicians who rely on large sums of money to mobilise masses for political rallies, appeal to their tribal bases for support, and distribute handouts to supporters, these new politicians are counting on the backing they receive on social media and the pro-people agendas they advocate.

Recently, Boniface Mwangi, a prominent figure in anti-government protests, announced his candidacy for the presidency in the 2027 election.

Another notable politician advocating for the rights of the people is Senator Omtatah.

In November last year, Omtatah officially launched his bid to unseat President Ruto by establishing a 10-member committee to assess his viability as a presidential candidate.

Gen-Z activist Hanifa Farsafi, a member of the committee and serving as a Public Relations Strategist, has expressed support for Omtatah’s bid, sparking conversations about the political inclinations of the younger generation.

“What Omtatah stands for aligns with our values. His principles resonate with us,” Farsafi stated.

Omtatah is optimistic that Kenyans will support his campaign financially to unseat the Kenya Kwanza government in the long run.

“People keep talking about money, but Kenyans have already shown their goodwill. We will get the support we need as we move forward,” he said.

As a first-time senator and longtime activist, Omtatah has been relentless in his criticism of the current administration and is positioning himself as a viable alternative.

Former Chief Justice Maraga is also entering the political fray,  aiming to unseat Ruto through a coalition of political parties.

Maraga has indicated that consultations are ongoing with various leaders who support his bid.

He believes that his presidential run will likely be under a coalition of parties, although he has not ruled out the possibility of running under a single political party.

“I will run on a political party or a coalition of parties. The most likely option is the latter,” Maraga said, revealing that he has already been approached by several parties and that many people are concerned about his potential candidacy.

“I have already got people who are worried in several parties, and they have said, ‘Look, would you like to run on my party? If not, we will support you. We will be one of the parties that will support you.’ So most likely, I will run on a coalition of parties.”

All the presidential hopefuls share one commonality: they lack the financial resources to launch flashy political campaigns or provide handouts to supporters.

Instead, they rely heavily on social media as their primary means of reaching out to voters, holding the government accountable, and articulating citizens’ concerns.

Political analysts argue that the new opposition faces significant challenges leading up to the 2027 elections.

Former Subukia MP Koigi wa Wamwere, who contested for the presidency at some point, argues that the country’s politics are largely rooted in ethnicity and regionalism, which hampers leaders who espouse nationalistic ideals.

“We are aware that tribal leaders hire communications experts to craft messages that appeal to their specific support bases, but at the national level, leaders present themselves as national figures,” Wamwere said.

“Anyone currently listening to Kikuyu, Luo, Kalenjin, or Luhya vernacular radio stations or engaging with messages circulated on various social media platforms can attest to the ethnic hatred being perpetuated by these outlets, which undermines national cohesion.”

Wamwere emphasized the urgent need for a third political force organized around principles of nationalism and patriotism, as negative ethnicity poses a significant threat to the country’s stability.

He noted that the increasing penetration of social media across the country is likely to influence the political behaviour of Kenyans, who are swayed by their respective ethnic leaders.

“When I criticised the government, I received vast support from Kenyans across the political spectrum. However, once I declared my intention to run for the presidency, the same individuals turned hostile,” Wamwere recounted.

The former politician, who endured periods of detention during the KANU regime, highlighted that many leading political activists and figures, such as lawyer Paul Muite, Mukaru Ng’ang’a, Wangari Maathai, George Anyona, and Martha Karua, faced backlash from their communities when they aimed for the presidency against their tribal leaders.

“No amount of social media posts will dissuade the youth from the Mt Kenya region from following Gachagua, just as the youth from Ukambani will rally behind Kalonzo Musyoka. The tribal chiefs remain the dominant figures in mobilising support against the government,” Wamwere added.

Analysts contend that the race for the presidency is a high-stakes political game, largely informed by significant ethnic mobilization among the five major ethnic communities that make up 50 per cent of the country’s population.

These groups include the populous Kikuyu community, the Luhyas, the Kalenjins, the Luos, and the Kambas, who dominate at least 27 out of the 47 counties.

Members of these five communities are also present in large numbers in the remaining counties.

Wamwere argued that counties function as ethnic conclaves that form the foundation for political mobilisation.

County leaders, professionals, farmers, traders, and religious leaders mobilize their communities to support their tribal leaders.

Political analysts point out that during every general election, tribal chiefs emerge as the dominant forces within their respective ethnic and regional voting blocs, where they provide political guidance.

Key political figures in the country, who draw support from their ethnic bases, include President Ruto (the Kalenjin), Raila Odinga (the Luos), Rigathi Gachagua (the Kikuyu), and Kalonzo Musyoka (the Kamba).

Musalia Mudavadi, Moses Wetangula, and Eugene Wamalwa each command support from segments of the Luhya community, while Fred Matiang’i has built his political base among the Kisii community.

Analysts argue that these ethnic kingpins hold the exclusive authority to form political alliances and enter agreements with leaders from other ethnic communities to secure the presidency.

Political analyst Andrew Nyabuto argued that in a politically charged environment filled with toxic ethnic sentiments and resentments, it is difficult for lesser-known presidential candidates to stand against established tribal leaders.

“While candidates like David Maraga, Okiya Omtatah, Reuben Kigame and Boniface Mwangi are articulate in critiquing the government’s failures on social media, it is improbable that they will secure substantial votes in the presidential race as voters tend to rally behind their tribal chiefs. The country’s political landscape is deeply rooted in ethnic chauvinism and rivalry among various groups, which rally around their tribal leaders. Anyone not aligned with their chief is often labeled as a spoiler or a traitor and swept away by the intense political currents,” Nyabuto opined.

Although these emerging leaders have excelled in holding the government accountable while elected officials and mainstream opposition have allied with the regime, Nyabuto emphasized that they face a significant challenge in their pursuit of the presidency.

“This group of leaders is adept at using social media, but the tribal leaders have long captured the hearts and minds of their communities,” Nyabuto added.

Political strategist and governance expert Njenga Kihanya echoed these sentiments, expressing admiration for the oversight efforts made by Maraga, Omtatah, Mwangi, and Kigame.

However, he noted their slim chances of winning the presidency due to the ethnically based nature of Kenyan politics.

“While they have successfully circulated their messages widely on social media, I doubt this will significantly impact their presidential campaigns against candidates like William Ruto, Kalonzo Musyoka, Raila Odinga, and Rigathi Gachagua,” Kihanya said.