Raila practically retired but could easily make a lethal comeback

Has President William Ruto managed to send ODM leader Raila Odinga into a planned retirement as he repeatedly promised before and after he became president?

Political pundits also wonder whether Raila could technically be enjoying his retirement benefits as he continues wallowing in State largesse, having abandoned his role as an opposition watchdog!

The ODM leader has already declared his support for Ruto in 2027, meaning his dream of becoming president will most likely disappear as his advanced age may not allow him to contest in 2032 when he will be 88 years old.

Raila, or Baba as he is popularly known, has over the years played a watchdog role, but he appears to have stopped after he joined the broad-based government last year.

He is now the complete opposite of the non-conformist political crusader he once was when he consistently demanded good governance, human rights and integrity in leadership.

He has now become a very vocal defender of Ruto and his government, especially after he negotiated for the appointments of senior ODM party officials to join the Cabinet.

He is also now one of the loudest critics of opposition leaders who are aggressively pushing the one term agenda to ensure that the President does not get re-elected in 2027.

Last month, Raila told a gathering in Homa Bay that he will work with Ruto beyond 2027. He didn’t expound what he meant, but political analysts think it signifies that he will not be on the presidential ballot but may be rewarded with an appointment in government.

Opposition leaders have also blamed him for abandoning Kenyans in pursuit of personal interests. Kenya Kwanza supporters have meanwhile hailed the decision and urged President Ruto to feed Raila with more resources.

Nairobi politician Philip Kisia thinks Ruto may have succeeded in pushing Raila into retirement, but, unfortunately, both the ODM leader and the President may be headed into the same direction come 2027.

He thinks they are both heading to retirement but the only way back for Raila is to jump ship now, although he does not have a very big window because time is running out.

Kisia wants Raila to “go back to where he belongs and support another opposition candidate this time round” because, he says, the ODM leader’s lieutenants claim he has stabilized successive governments, he should focus on ensuring that the next government is stable from the start.

“There is no need of spending so much energy trying to correct failures and misbehaviour in successive governments and then you join them mid-stream to make them stable. Just join the opposition so that they can do what is right from the start,” says Kisia.

Pro-government leaders, however, want Raila to continue sitting pretty in Ruto’s administration because of the support he will give for the President’s re-election in 2027.

Baringo North MP Joseph Makilap is among those who pleaded for more goodies for Raila because of the invaluable political support the government is receiving from him.

Makilap praised Raila for holding the President’s hand like the biblical Joshua when Ruto sought for his support to deal with ‘nuisance’ from former Deputy President Rigathi Gachagua.

“We will tell the President to continue feeding Raila with gourd milk at State House non-stop. The supply should not pause even for a moment. He should not be allowed to even turn his head until the next government is formed in 2027,” Makilap said while addressing a meeting in Baringo.

Energy Cabinet Secretary Opiyo Wandayi has also declared that ODM support for Ruto is for the longest term possible and not just for his 2027 re-election bid.

“Our support for President Ruto will not be ending tomorrow or any time soon. It is a support that is going to the maximum possible end and that is the position of our party leader Raila Odinga. It is not mere rhetoric but a firm commitment,” said Wandayi.

Kanu spokesman Tony Gachoka argues that Raila’s decision to work with Ruto could also be strategic because he needs a big coalition for political survival.

Gachoka says that is because Raila has learned the art of building coalitions since 2002 with Narc, followed by CORD, NASA, Azimio, and now UDA. That is why he will most likely join Ruto, Musalia Mudavadi, Moses Wetangula and regional leaders to form another coalition in 2027.

The challenge is that the numbers may not add up because of the first changing dynamics.  Gachoka argues that Luhya, Kisii and Kamba voting blocks that supported Raila and the Azimio coalition in 2022 are no longer solidly behind him.

Gachoka also thinks Ruto will probably pick a Luo running, which will guarantee him eight per cent of the national vote that the community holds. Added to the 12 per cent from his own Kalenjin community, the President will have a solid 20 per cent of the total vote before looking for top-ups.

Aided by Musalia Mudavadi and Moses Wetangula, the two may also get some marginal support from western, where the emergence of new players like Trans Nzoia governor George Natembeya has radically changed the political matrix.

He, however, argues that Wiper party leader Kalonzo Musyoka may pose the biggest threat to the Ruto–Raila alliance because of Rigathi Gachagua’s support that can guarantee him Mt Kenya region’s 26 per cent vote.

“Is the Kamba, Luhya, Kisii and Mt Kenya vote still with Baba and Ruto? The answer is no, and they know that is the position. That is why they will do everything to get votes from other areas, which could still fall far short,” says Gachoka.

But political analyst Martin Andati thinks that given Raila’s unpredictable nature, it will be wrong to write him off because he as the knack of either making lethal comebacks or recovering from political challenges.

“The fact that he appears tamed does not mean he is irrelevant. He is receiving big delegations at his office daily. Mama Ida is also meeting so many people daily at her Spectre office on his behalf. He is very unpredictable,” says Andati.

The late vice president Wamalwa Kijana summed up Raila’s character when he cautioned that one cannot know the real Raila they are dealing with because at one time one is talking to Raila and the next time one meets Amollo.

The ODM leader has also himself cautioned that he is like a rained-on lion that resembles a cat, but he is still a lion, meaning that he still has his mojo and should not be taken lightly or mistaken to be weak for joining the broad-based government.

Raila  always finds a way of coming back forcefully, either through championing alliances or bringing together leaders, as he did 2007 when he mobililzed leaders like Ruto and others to form the ODM Pentagon

Last year, sources in government signaled at his scheme to join government after his bid for the AU Commission chairmanship bid failed. Raila lost the seat to Mahmoud Ali Youssouf, the Foreign Affairs Minister for Djibouti, during the Thirtieth Ordinary Session of the Assembly of Heads of State and Government of the African Union on February 15, 2025. 

He thereafter engaged in a few visits to Busia, Kisumu and Mombasa to allegedly consult widely on his next political move before deciding his next political destination.

It was a poorly kept secret because all along as mainstream and social media was reporting that he was on his way into government. A bigger opportunity to cement the marriage, however, presented itself after the Gen Z protests in June 2024.

“I have plans to hold discussions with political friends and supporters and would be issuing the way forward soon. I will consult widely about what is going on and, in due course, we are going to announce our way forward,” said Raila.

Raila now argues that he is more concerned about the future of Kenya and the people’s well-being, hence his repeated decisions of joining those in power to stabilize governments.