Why Kenya's sixth president will be chosen long before Election Day

In every election cycle, millions of Kenyans queue to cast their ballots, believing they are electing their next president. But do they?

But based on my long study of presidential politics, let me share an inconvenient truth: The winner is rarely chosen at the ballot. Instead, three powerful agencies decide long before the ordinary voter steps into the polling booth. Who are they?

This theory may ruffle feathers, but it explains why I’m often confident in predicting presidential outcomes, and why some contenders never quite stand a chance. The first truth is that becoming president, the world over, is not the same as winning any other seat.

Gubernatorial, senatorial, or parliamentary contests are accessible to all, but the presidency is guarded by forces designed to produce very specific outcomes. That’s why, even when a candidate seems popular, the gods of the system may retain or reject them. It’s by design.

Presidential power flows from the top down. The presidency is shaped not by public popularity alone but by deeper, invisible currents. Let’s explore the three agencies that determine who will be Kenya’s head of state every five years.

The first agency is what I refer to as the Boardroom Conclave. The first step is not the campaign trail. It’s the boardroom. Here, coalition of partners and party leaders gather to ‘anoint’ a presidential candidate. For instance, the current Kenyan opposition conclave consists of Rigathi Gachagua, Kalonzo Musyoka, Martha Karua, Eugene Wamalwa, and Justin Muturi, among others.

Despite the public preference, it’s these leaders who will meet behind closed doors and review names and interests. Once a preferred candidate is selected, a symbolic “white smoke” is sent to supporters, and the campaign begins.

Later on the voting day, voters will queue to confirm a decision that was made long before the ballot. Was the people's choice truly theirs? The answer is no.

What about the presidential running mate? The flag-bearer picks them. Let me give a case we all know. In 2022, it is widely known that Raila Odinga preferred Martha Karua despite push-back from President Uhuru Kenyatta. William Ruto chose Rigathi Gachagua, even though the conclave preferred Kithure Kindiki. Once endorsed, the presidential candidate is no longer under the control of the conclave. Who then does the candidate submit to?

That takes us to the second agency. I will call it the internal deep state. This agency never queues at polling stations. Made up of financial and political interests, this group operates behind the scenes. They hold the purse-strings to elections. Presidential campaigns cost billions, and someone must foot the bill.

They do, but with conditions. They inform the boardroom conclave, “We’ll support this one, not that one.” Coalitions comply, knowing that without funding, they cannot compete. This agency doesn’t care for ideology; it selects leaders with whom it can do business with. In this sphere, politics is give and take. Their money works for them. They do not queue to vote; neither do they register as voters.

The third agency is the international deep state. This agency is global and lethal. It doesn’t vote either, but its voice carries enormous weight. They are foreign interests that often influence the internal deep state, ensuring their strategic concerns are safeguarded by whoever takes power.

This group ‘observes’ the election process, and their reports shape public perception. If they say an election was “free and fair,” the world, and even local institutions, accept it. If they declare it flawed, the legitimacy of the outcome is crumbled. Does that sound familiar?

So, I ask Kenyans, does your preferred candidate satisfy these three agencies? The international deep state? The internal financiers? The boardroom conclave? Verily, I tell you, in the end, the ballot is not where power begins but where it is ratified. And that is the political chessboard!

Dr Ndonye is the Dean of Kabarak University’s School of Music and Media