What next for Tanzania after Suluhu's win?

As expected, the declaration of President Samia Suluhu Hassan as the winner of the just concluded presidential elections in Tanzania yesterday was rejected and condemned as fraudulent and illegal by the opposition and protestors still occupying the streets.

The victory, gained in what has been described as a dubious and unverifiable process, has only added fuel to the fire. Riots continued yesterday, with reports indicating that hundreds of people have been killed and property worth millions of shillings destroyed.

Focus now shifts to if, how and when Mama Samia will be sworn into office and how the country will react. People will also be curious to see if any leaders from neighbouring countries will attend the function.

It has now emerged that Samia and those around her are under heavy diplomatic pressure to de-escalate the situation by entering into some kind of deal with the opposition, although both are holding very extreme positions.

Tempers were inflamed when the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC) declared yesterday morning that the President had won by about 98 per cent of votes cast and her party, Chama Cha Mapinduzi (CCM), has captured 170 out of 172 seats in Parliament.

Thousands of irate youths gathered at Posta Grounds in Dar es Salaam as others massed up in Dodoma with an intention of marching to occupy State Houses in the two cities after the results were announced.

“They are singing and dancing, saying we don’t want Samia. It is still very chaotic here. We don’t know what is going to happen and she still has not appeared in public since Wednesday morning,” said a caller from Dar es Salaam.

The caller said elderly people are fleeing from the city to rural areas for fear of being trapped in the chaos. Property belonging to senior CCM officials has been burned down across the country, including Parliament Speaker Tulia Ackson’s house in the town of Mbeya.

Media blackout also continued for the third day with no mention of the deadly riots on national TV and radio stations. Daily newspapers were also missing on the streets for the third day running.

No official government communication has been made since Thursday morning when government spokesman Gerson Msigwa asked civil servants to remain at home as police and the military tried to contain to situation.

Former Minister Amukowa Anangwe, a political scientist with connections in Tanzania, told The Standard yesterday that a diplomatic charm offensive involving both regional and international leaders to find a solution is on-going.

Sources also indicated that former Tanzania President Jakaya Mrisho Kikwete is in Kenya and has probably held talks with President William Ruto and his predecessor Uhuru Kenyatta about the deteriorating situation in the country.

As the current East Africa Community (EAC) chairperson, President Ruto is expected to be engaging leaders in Tanzania and indeed the entire region to resolve the elections dispute as quickly as possible to stop further loss of lives.

The same is expected from President Cyril Ramaphosa of South Africa who recently took over in an interim capacity as the chair of the South Africa Development Cooperation (SADC), which Tanzania is also a member.

“Definitely, there are telephone calls between Dr Ruto and Uganda’s Yoweri Museveni with Samia. They cannot afford to let this get worse than where it has reached, because it can destabilise the entire region,” Prof Anangwe said.

UN Secretary General Antonio Guterres has already raised alarm at the goings on in Tanzania, while the government of The United States has sent an advisory telling its citizens to remain indoors because of the dangerous situation that is currently out of control.

So far, the EAC observer mission has declared that the elections were not free and fair. Very few observers were allowed into the country while foreign media, including Kenyan journalists, were barred from covering the controversial polls.

Anangwe says Tanzania is now exposed and no amount of blocking of outside media and the international community can stop exposing the flawed elections and other political challenges in the country.

“However much they talk about national sovereignty, Tanzania is now like a glass house. Everybody is watching them and others are peeping through the windows. It, therefore, is inevitable that pressure is only going to mount on Samia,” says the former political science lecturer at Dodoma University.

President Samia, therefore, has very few options other than yielding space for the opposition to be heard. It will be difficult for her to convince the world that she won the elections fairly, let alone the unbelievable figures released by INEC.

A journalist who spoke to The Standard from Dar es Salaam yesterday said no elections took place in many polling stations due to the violence. Coupled with voter apathy due to lack of participation by the opposition, it was impossible for her to get 32 million votes.

That, therefore, speaks volumes about the flawed nature of the process. On Wednesday, the Internet had lots of pictures of lorries full of marked ballots in Samia’s favour being impounded by protestors as voting was taking place.

Opposition leader Tundu Lissu of Chama Cha Haki na Demokrasia (CHADEMA) did not participate in the elections because he is in custody for alleged treason.

He is expected to appear in court again next week when other witnesses, said to be boda boda riders based in rural areas, will testify on behalf of the prosecution. Evidence by all other witnesses as been dismissed by the court.

The other candidate, Luhaga Mpina of ACT Wazalendo, was also locked out on alleged technicalities despite being cleared by the court to run for presidency. INEC said Mpina still did not meet the integrity threshold required.

Asked why the situation has run out of control, Anangwe said it was because most African leaders don’t understand the value of having a vocal and vibrant opposition.

“And by not letting the opposition express their democratic rights, Samia has now discredited herself in Tanzania, the region and the entire world. To save face, she needs to quickly climb down and agree to talk with the opposition.”

The best way forward now is to deal with the immediate problem, which is to stop the violence and return the country to normalcy. That will require talks to achieve short terms goals, including power sharing.

The reforms agenda Chadema is pushing for can also be discussed to remedy the electoral process that the party says is seriously flawed. There is need for an independent nomination process of INEC commissioners, unlike now where they are hand-picked by the President.

There should also an appeal process for results to be challenged in court as opposed to INECs announcement of results being final with no room for appeal.  

The long term agenda of negotiations between CCM and the opposition should lead to holding free and fair elections in five years, commentators opine.

Tanzania has operated like a one party state since independence because of CCM’s dominance. It has only changed names from TAA, TANU and then CCM without serious reforms, they say.

Anangwe argues that diplomatic pressure should also focus on restarting the Constitution review process that began under President Kikwete’s regime but was trashed when Magufuli took over.

He dismissed the process that had already reached the collection of views level, saying it was not part of his campaign agenda. Samia followed her predecessor’s footsteps and has so far ignored repeated calls for reforms.

Instead, she has increasingly become very authoritarian. Clamping down on the opposition, independent media and civil society, forced disappearances, abductions, killings and torture are the new normal.

Tanzanians have also repeatedly complained about being shortchanged because the Island of Zanzibar, which is part of the union, has its own government with a sitting president and his deputy, while the larger mainland does not.

President Samia comes from Zanzibar and since Tanzania has two deputy prime ministers representing the two sides, it means the Island has four senior leaders in the executive, two presidents, deputy president and deputy prime minister while the mainland has the non-executive prime minister, deputy president and deputy prime minister.