How Suluhu's 98 pc win, curious voter turnout displays folly of African elections

President Samia Suluhu Hassan has been declared the winner of Tanzania's presidential election. She had an unprecedented 98 per cent of the vote, in what many are calling a sham election and a rubber-stamp reaffirmation of her rule. The electoral commission announced the results as violent protests and widespread unrest rocked the country.

The electoral chief, Jacobs Mwambegele, declared Samia the winner with about 31.9 million votes out of 32 million cast, and voter turnout at nearly 87 per cent of the 37.6 million registered voters. But several reports from opposition groups and international observers have cast doubt on the figures, citing very low voter turnout on election day because of intimidation and disruptions in polling stations.

Two main opposition contenders for the presidency were either jailed or disqualified on legal technicalities, clearing the path for Samia to run unopposed. Tundu Lissu, the former opposition candidate from Chadema, has been held on dubious treason charges. Luhaga Mpina of ACT-Wazalendo was barred from running after the electoral commission questioned his integrity. With no credible candidates to contest her, Samia faced only minor parties lacking public support.

The situation was further marred by a nationwide internet shutdown, which made independent verification of turnout and actual tally of votes impossible. The government's heavy-handed approach included an extended curfew and a large security presence, with armed police and the military deployed to violently quell demonstrations.

Protests erupted nationwide, led largely by young voters angered by the suppression of democratic processes. In cities like Dar es Salaam and border towns such as Namanga, protestors tore down Samia’s posters, attacked police stations, and blocked roads with burning tyres, adopting protest tactics borrowed from Kenya’s Gen Z demonstrations early this year.. The authorities responded with tear gas and live ammunition, resulting in violent clashes that reportedly left hundreds dead, although independent verification is difficult amid the communication blackout and government denials.

Opposition party Chadema claims that around 700 people have been killed during the election period, with many more injured or missing. The United Nations and several Western governments expressed serious concern over credible reports of fatalities and human rights violations during the protests. However, the Tanzanian government dismissed these claims as exaggerated and painted the unrest as "isolated incidents."

In Zanzibar's island, where elections are held separately, the incumbent from CCM party won nearly 80% of votes. Opposition figures there also alleged massive electoral fraud.

The election itself was widely termed as a "rubber stamp" rather than a democratic contest. Before voting, opposition parties were hounded and intimidated. Chadema that was once the dominant opposition party had been banned from elections after refusing to sign a controversial code of conduct. Its leader is still in prison on politically motivated charges. The clauses for disqualification were reportedly applied selectively, sidelining real challengers and allowing only token opposition candidates, some of whom were touted as being state-sponsored projects.

Even within the CCM party, complaints arose about lack of transparency during the nomination process. Former president Jakaya Kikwete defended the party's tradition of unopposed reelection for sitting presidents, effectively endorsing Samia's predetermined victory.

As election day approached, transportation across Tanzania was shut down, as many bus companies suspending services. This unprecedented disruption appeared aimed at limiting movement and potential protests on voting day. Social media platforms favored by young voters, such as the now-blocked X (formerly Twitter) and censored TikTok discussions, were heavily restricted, further stifling opposition voices.

On election day, images emerged of polling stations with almost no voters, including footage of a minor presidential candidate walking into an empty polling station alone. These scenes contrasted with the government's claims of high turnout .

President Samia herself was only seen briefly voting at a station in the capital Dodoma early in the day in front of limited press. 

Following the vote, protests escalated as citizens rejected what they saw as a charade. Police clashed with protestors; barricades were erected, and police stations set on fire in several towns. The violence spilled over into the neighboring Kenyan border town of Namanga, where cross-border skirmishes injured several people, including Kenyans supporting the Tanzanian protesters.

Meanwhile, the whereabouts of President Samia became uncertain as the country descended further into turmoil. Some sources suggested she relocated to Zanzibar and then Nairobi amidst the escalating crisis. Her family was also alleged to be hiding in Mombasa. 

The Standard can confirm that some of the leading Tanzania movie stars and musicians who were at the forefront of campaigning for Presdient Samia including Diamond and Zuchu had all fled the country and were spotted in houses on the South Coast. Suluhu’s son, Abdi Hassan was also spotted hiding in Mombasa. Ibrah, of Konde Gang and his managers was also spotted in Mombasa.

The European Union, United Nations, UK, Canada, and Norway all condemned the crackdown and expressed doubt about the credibility of the election. Several major international observer missions withdrew a few days to elections day citing unfair conditions and suppression of dissent, leaving only regional observers from organizations with questionable neutrality.

Domestic observers were effectively sidelined, and many media outlets self-censored or were shut down entirely. The government banned any election coverage that did not toe the official line and prohibited media from reporting any information not issued by the government  during the electoral period.

In a report titled “Unopposed, Unchecked, Unjust” and sub-headed “Wave of Terror Sweeps Tanzania Ahead of 2025 Vote”, Amnesty International had issued a damning assessment of the political and human rights climate in the country ahead of the polls.

The organisation claims Tanzania is witnessing a worsening human rights situation as authorities increasingly rely on repressive laws to suppress dissent, targeting journalists, civil society organisations, human rights defenders, and opposition figures.

The government has dismissed the accusations, describing them as sweeping, unsubstantiated, and inconsistent with Tanzania’s governance and human rights framework.

Chief Government Spokesperson Gerson Msigwa expressed concern over the report, saying it had been released without giving the authorities a fair opportunity to respond.

Initially lauded for expanding political freedoms, President Samia, East Africa’s first woman head of state, has since drawn widespread criticism for increasing suppression and repression of opposition parties and political opponents.

That is unlike in previous elections, when the European Union, Commonwealth Observer Group and many private missions from the across the world participated in scrutinising the exercise. There is no indication from their official websites that they will be taking part.

The last time Tanzania held a election under the watch of international observers was in 2015, when voters elected former President John Pombe Magufuli to succeed Jakaya Mrisho Kikwete. With Samia as his running mate, Magufuli received 8.8 million votes, while opposition candidate of Chadema party Edward Lowassa garnered slightly over six million.

In the past five presidential elections in African countries, voter turnout percentages rarely go past 60 percent. In 2019 Nigeria's presidential election, voter turnout was 35%, with approximately 29 million voters casting ballots from 84 million registered voters. In the same year, South Africa turnout was 66%.

Kenya's 2022 presidential election had a voter turnout of about 68%, while in 2020, Ghana's witnessed a turnout close to 79%. Rwanda’s 2024 presidential election had a high turnout at 98%, with nearly 7.7 million voters participating out of 7.8 million registered although obervers raised questions about the viability of the polls.

The worst case of electoral theft in the continent was in 1927 Liberian general election. President Charles D.B. King claimed a landslide victory with over 240,000 votes, while his opponent Thomas J. Faulkner, received barely 9,000 votes. However, the number of registered voters was less than 15,000 giving the country the dubious record of making it into the Guinness Book of Records as the most fraudulent election in history. 

Observers, including a delegation from the EU trooped to Tanzania to cover those much anticipated elections, unlike the current scenario where none of the major watchdogs appear interested.

“In response to an invitation by the Tanzanian authorities, the European Union had deployed an Election Observation Mission to Tanzania to observe the presidential, parliamentary and local Council elections,” wrote Federica Mogherini, High Representative of the Union for Foreign Affairs and Security Policy and Vice-President of the European Commission in October 2015. 

Yesterday, Macharia Munene opined that observers are now not interested because the outcome is a foregone conclusion and what awaits Tanzanians is a mere ratification of Mama Samia as the President.

“The process has disqualified itself and does not deserve having a credible observer team. They do not want to discredit the role of observers and that is why they will not be present,” says the seasoned historian. 

Kenya was represented by Nyeri Woman Rep Rahab Mukami, on the African Union mission. Mukami is a close ally of President William Ruto.

Prof Munene is not surprised that she was nominated because she will most likely sing praises to President Samia as a good democrat and also give credit to the pre-determined elections.