Ruto's China state visit and the trouble with Kenya's foreign policy

In May 2024, President William Ruto was accorded a highly privileged visit by the United States. His host then, President Joe Biden, accorded him a state visit, then the first for an African Head of State in 16 years.

The visit came with significant wins for Kenya, economically and geostrategically. The country was designated as a major non-North Atlantic Treaty Organisation (NATO) US ally, a first in sub-Saharan Africa. The visit was rightly viewed within the context of the increasing great power competition, especially pitting the USA and China.

Dr Ruto’s 2022 electoral victory was viewed favourably in Washington. The latter was in fact accused by some of interfering with the process to hand Ruto the victory. Ruto’s policy shift in the early days of his administration did little to dispel the suspicion. He took a hard shift America-ward, reorienting Kenya’s foreign policy posture to America’s taste and delight, only matched by distaste in Beijing. The shift was partly evidenced by the adopted policy position which mirrored that of the United States.

The Biden-Ruto party would however face a test following the Gen Z protests a month after the much-publicised state visit. The ensuing violations by Ruto’s administration, through killings, abductions and disappearances, forced the US to register its displeasure, albeit reluctantly. But it is the outcome of the US elections in November 2024 that would definitively disrupt the longevity of the party. The aftershock of the policy shift by President Donald Trump, upon assuming office in January 2025, hit Nairobi.

Co-architects

In response, Ruto took a reverse hard turn, shifting to US’s primary geopolitical rival; the People’s Republic of China. The culmination of the shift was the state visit to Beijing by Ruto. During the visit, Ruto delivered a speech in Peking University, calling for an overhaul of the global order. He referenced Kenya and China as the "co-architects of a new world order." Ruto’s speech was a subject of a hearing by the US Senate Committee on Foreign Relations last week. The Committee Chairman, Senator Jim Risch, railed at the speech, calling for a review of Kenya and US relations.

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The hard shifts in Ruto’s foreign policy orientation point to his trouble navigating Kenya in a multi-polar world. The statement in Beijing especially demonstrates this. The flaw with the President’s statement was its content, who delivered it, and where it was delivered.

The statement called for re-engineering of the global order, basically attacking the heavily US-led status quo. The appeal was made by Kenya, a partial beneficiary of the very edifice it was attacking. The challenge with the statement lay in the fact that it was not well reconciled with reality.

A wise foreign policy posture should be pragmatic. Reality is that the US-led global order is not about to end anytime soon. America’s influence, though no longer at its height, remains very strong. Similarly, emerging powers, including China, are on the rise and are playing an increasingly palpable role. Kenya’s foreign policy should be reflective of this reality.

Kenya’s foreign should be ‘evolutionary’ rather than ‘revolutionary.’ It should gradually evolve with the evolving international system. It should neither be static nor outpace it. It should seek to maximise benefits deriving from both the existing and rising blocs. It should seek to benefit from China’s willingness to invest in large-scale infrastructure while acknowledging US’s willingness to discuss a bilateral free trade agreement with Kenya.

Mr Ogutu is a political commentator