From bandits to AI: Kenya's security must evolve fast to counter crime

The stunning revelation this week by the Director of the National Intelligence Service (NIS), Noordin Haji, about the overwhelming threats Kenya faces from the territories of its immediate neighbours has exposed the regional dynamics and worsening insecurity in the East African region.

While East Africa’s richest nation has largely succeeded in containing al Shabaab and shielding its cities from attacks, it continues to struggle with militias like the Karamoja bandits and Ethiopia’s Oromo Liberation Front, who have taken lands within its borders.

This situation is set to worsen with emerging threats such as cybercrime and social media radicalization, underscoring the urgent need for more concerted efforts to modernize, strengthen and better resource the entire security system.

Appearing before Parliament, Haji, who has adopted a more visible and hands on approach to national security than any of his predecessors said bluntly that Kenya is under siege from four directions.

“I am saddened that we do not take our national security seriously. Over the past decade, the security sector has not received sufficient funding to procure the necessary equipment to defend the country. This should not be taken lightly,” said Haji.

He noted that while NIS continues to provide vital intelligence to protect Kenyans, it is equally important for other frontline security agencies, who rely on this intelligence, to be adequately resourced and prepared to confront evolving threats such as terrorism, transnational crime, and cyber warfare.

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“The age of disinformation and misinformation poses a real threat to national stability. Investment in staff training and modern infrastructure is no longer optional,” he added.

The security warning to Kenyan MPs comes against the backdrop of a strong regional push to reshape the architecture of regional security to better confront both traditional threats (terrorism, banditry) and emerging ones driven by technology and Artificial Intelligence.

At the second Mashariki Conference, held in the scenic town of Naivasha and attended by over 60 intelligence directors from Across Africa and beyond, spy chiefs stressed the urgent need to respond to a shifting world order that demands more sophisticated tools to safeguard citizens.

“The world is changing rapidly—and not for the better. Unfortunately, terrorism, cybercrime, and attempts to topple governments have become daily challenges,” said Ibrahim Kalin, the Turkish Intelligence Chief.

“I urge all of you to integrate digital advancements, especially artificial intelligence, into our intelligence systems,” Kenya’s President William Ruto told the conference.

“By doing so, we can use technology as a powerful tool to stay ahead of the threats and risks we face, both as individual nations and as a region. I am confident that when applied correctly, technology has the potential to solve many of the challenges we encounter today,” he said.While echoing the president’s sentiments, the summit’s host; Haji raised alarm over the evolving national security threats in the digital age.

“The rapid advancements in technology, the growth of social media and the rise of digital activism have significantly increased security risks, reaching levels we have never seen before,” he warned.

With more individuals, businesses and government services migrating online, the region is becoming a lucrative target for cyberattacks, with critical systems and sensitive data now more vulnerable than ever.

According to Check Point Software Technologies’ 2024 report, African organizations suffered over 3,000 cyberattacks per week on average, a significant increase compared to the global average of 1,800 attacks per week.

Countries such as Kenya and Nigeria reported weekly cyberattack figures exceeding 4,700, primarily targeting government and financial institutions. Morocco, notably, recorded one of the highest attack rates on the continent, with over 8,700 weekly incidents targeting public sector organizations.

“The reasons behind these attacks have become as varied as the methods used. Ransomware remained a major threat, with attackers not just after money, but also seeking recognition,” says the Check Point Software Technologies 2024 report.

“Artificial Intelligence (AI) played a bigger role in cyber-attacks this year. Attackers started using AI tools to make their phishing campaigns more effective. However, the good news is that AI is also being used by cyber defenders to better protect against these threats,” says the report. The increase in attacks is not limited to mere disruptions. Their financial and social consequences are profound. For instance, in Nigeria, a banking trojan breach in 2024 compromised nearly 100,000 customer accounts, resulting in losses of approximately $3 million.

Mohammed Mohammed, Nigeria National Intelligence Agency: “We are no longer just facing a threat from crime and terrorism. We need to have the will to make decisions that are in the best interest of our continent through the sharing of intelligence.”

Across the continent, the financial impact of cybercrime between 2019 and 2024 is estimated to have surpassed $1.5 billion. This is according to a report by AfricaC-PAF which notes that key sectors such as finance, energy, healthcare, and public services are bearing the brunt.

As Africa’s digital economy continues to expand, experts warn that addressing cybersecurity vulnerabilities is critical to safeguarding long-term growth and stability.

According to the United Nations Economic Commission for Africa (UNECA), the continent’s lack of adequate preparedness against cyber threats could cost African nations up to 10 per cent of their GDP annually.  Apart from a surge in cyber-crime, most countries in the region save for Tanzania are battling with their own or cross border insecurity matters which have the potential to have destabilizing consequences.

Additionally, with the exception of Rwanda, many countries in the region will have elections in the next two years, and possibly a generational succession thereafter.

Sudan, where the military government is battling its former ally, has become a theatre for superpower rivalry and the country is at risk of ending up like Syria or Libya. The conflict between President Salvar Kiir and his deputy, Riek Machar, in South Sudan could escalate to a drawn-out civil war.

This week, Alan Boswell, an expert on South Sudan and Sudan for the International Crisis Group, warned of the impacts that potential civil war in South Sudan will have on the current conflict in Sudan. “Even if the army thinks Juba helps the RSF, the collapse of South Sudan would give the RSF a much greater operational theatre than it already has,” he told Al Jazeera.

Uganda goes to the polls next year with President Yoweri Museveni seeking another term in an election that has already showed signs of violence. Tanzania is also on a messy road to polls later in this year, with a brutal crackdown on opposition figures and the main opposition party banned from participating in the vote.

Campaigns for the 2027 general election in Kenya have already started and it promises to be hotly contested and possibly violent. Therefore, even as the region seeks to change the security game at a regional level, domestically developments militate against the good intentions.

“Security is not just about arms and intelligence; it is also about education, equity and opportunity,” notes Dr Hadija Yusuf, a conflict resolution expert from Somalia. “We must dismantle the breeding grounds of extremism—poverty, exclusion and ignorance.”

These complexities in the region are interestingly coming into play at a time when the most consequential player in regional security, the US, is increasingly preoccupied with domestic concerns, chief among them the desire to cut public expenditure and manage debt.

This has seen massive disengagement from international affairs and more focus on local economic issues, with the US threatening to turn its back on old alliances, such as Nato, and its role as the world’s policeman.

The US has traditionally trained and equipped the militaries of its allies in Africa to improve their capabilities in areas like counter terrorism, border security and military intelligence.