Church at crossroads as cardinals to select tradition or change

As the cardinals file into the Sistine Chapel, the stakes of the 2025 Conclave go far beyond the walls of the Vatican.

With nearly 1.4 billion Catholics worldwide and influence that ripples through culture, geopolitics, and moral discourse, the next pope will define not just the future of the church but its very identity.

The conclave begins on Wednesday May 7 as some 130 cardinals are already in Vatican and took an oath of secrecy on Tuesday Morning.

The election of a new pope is expected to take about five days.

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But even as the exercise goes on, a quiet but potent divide lies in the global church and potentially within the college of the elector cardinals.

While one bloc sees the church as the safeguard against modern secularism and advocating for the return of the rigid belief and defense of doctrine, the other divide calls for more openness to the social and cultural changes.

 Deep ideological tensions within the College of Cardinals, split between conservative traditionalists and those advocating progressive reforms, are likely to shape the election of the next pope.

Some are seen leaning toward continuing the legacy of the late Pope Francis, whose papacy introduced more inclusive and sometimes controversial ideas into Church discourse.

Now, the central question is whether the Church will double down on tradition or embrace reform on key issues such as LGBTQ+ inclusion, priestly celibacy, and the role of women within Church leadership among others.

The faithful are now waiting to see if the new pope will move beyond Pope Francis’s ‘who am I to judge? Moment of doctrinal change on LGBTQ inclusion, or he will draw the line to affirm the identity of the church.

There is also a growing debate over priestly celibacy, where priests are allowed to marry, especially in regions facing acute shortages.

According to the Mbai Muthee, a lecturer and chaplain at Karatina University, the new pope should be conservative and focus on returning the roots of the catholic and Christian faith.

“We are not looking for somebody in the footsteps of Pope Francis. We are looking for somebody in the footsteps and the imitation of Christ because Christ is the founder of the Church,” said Mbai.

Although he acknowledges the sympathetic approach to the disadvantaged and the sinners in Pope Francis' legacy, Mbai noted that the church must come out as a moral voice and pronounce itself on key issues

“There is a very big divide now between the conservatives and the liberals, and if the Church is going to survive a sheathing, the next pope should strike the middle way or else it will be a chaotic future, whoever becomes the Pope,” said Mbai.

Pope Francis’s legacy is itself contested. He opened the door to debate but rarely closed it with doctrinal change.

But according to Fr. Mbai, the LGBTQ agenda and accepting gay people in the governance of the church, ordaining women, and doing away with priestly celibacy were “too revolutionary”.

“The Church historically enjoys an evolutionary approach, but it has become like everybody can belong to the Church. Justification that everything is justified and that truth depends on my viewpoint risks relativism,” he argued.

Mbai noted that the papacy of the late pope encouraged moral relativism at the expense of the deeper state of faith and doctrines of the church.

The next pope will also be tasked with rebuilding trust as disaffection among young Catholics and scandals related to abuse and cover-ups grow.

Mbai noted that the young generation has lost trust in the credibility of the church owing to the past scandals and that the trust will only be regained through doctrinal clarity.

“The Church serves as a moral conscience. So even when the youth go astray, or when the political class falters, the last institution expected to join in that moral relativism is the Church. People still recognize that there is enduring value in the Church’s tradition,” Mbai asserted.

“Social change issues, such as LGBTQ inclusion, should evolve gradually. It may take 200 years, or perhaps less, for the Church in Africa or even the conservative factions of the Church to accept these changes. But change must be allowed to grow.”

He added, “Because if you speed up sometimes, the change, just like when you speed up on the roads, you are likely to knock somebody into a tree, and then you get injured. I think whoever becomes the next pope will have a big challenge.”

While the actual papabile list is secretive and speculative, names like Cardinal Peter Turkson of Ghana, who is more progressive on social issues, Cardinal Matteo Zuppi of Italy, associated with peace-building and pastoral openness, or Cardinal Raymond Burke US, who is staunchly conservative, are being whispered in Vatican corridors.

Dr Patrick Gachagi, a Catholic priest and church historian said the “the church was running a little but bit too fast.

“In the history of the church, we do not have those progressive popes who are running so much ahead of time. We need a conservative person,” said Gachagi.

On the role of women in the leadership of the church, Gachagi argued that they are allowed to serve in various leadership roles but should not be ordained as priests.

 As the cardinals elect a new pope, the faithful hope to get a leader who will revolutionise how marriage is officiated.

 “As an African, I would expect a Pope who will be very open to the institution of marriage as we do it in Africa. Every culture has its right of marriage, and so you cannot come and dictate a European right of marriage,” said Mbai.

He regretted that the crutch locks out many women who are not married in the right way in the church.

“You kick out so many women from the Church. We take their offerings and other contributions, but we are not letting them receive the communion,” he added.

Gachagi said the new pope should guide the church on how to address the growing crisis of mental issues among young people.

The pope should also address the growing ‘boom of vocations’ where may people are applying to be priests.

“So many people want to become priests, and the question is whether they are genuine vocations. Are the young people joining the priesthood to run away from the economic constraints?” Gachagi posed.

“This happened in Europe years back, but today there are no priests in Europe. Are they joining the seminary because of the notion that everything is being provided for by the church?” he posed.

“Currently at the seminary, we have a boom we have never seen. From 250 students, we have 380, and we have so many applications,” he added.

 Meanwhile, 170 Cardinals, including 132 Cardinal electors, participated in the eleventh General Congregation on Monday afternoon.

According to the Holy See Press Office director, Matteo Bruni, around 20 interventions were presented during the meeting to guide the election of the next pope.

The Cardinals outlined the figure of a pastoral Pope within the perspective of dialogue and building relationships with different religious and cultural worlds.