Huge infrastructure projects might boost Ruto's re-election bid

By law, Kenya’s development spending ought to be a minimum of 30 percent of the country’s revenues. However, this threshold has not been met lately, with development spending at its lowest in 11 years. According to the National Treasury, this “has been attributed to the reduced funding due to debt-servicing pressures.”

Cytonn, a Kenyan investment company, reports “that of June 2024, the debt service to revenue ratio in Kenya was 69.6 percent, meaning that nearly 70 percent of government revenue was allocated to debt servicing.” The recommended threshold for developing countries is 30 percent.

Development is indeed a major driver of economic growth in Kenya. When government spending on development projects like roads, education, and other social services is curtailed, the impact is felt across the country. Lack of development poses an existential threat to William Ruto's presidency. If the present trend were to continue, his re-election bid in 2027 could potentially come a cropper.

The President urgently needs big-ticket infrastructure projects going in the next year for two reasons: Optics and putting money in people’s pockets. It is therefore not for nothing that he has reached out to development partners to fund, as the law allows, Kenya’s development agenda.

Last year, the President was invited to a state visit by then-US President Joe Biden. Several initiatives were discussed. Of importance is the fact that US-backed companies are in the final stages of a proposal to build a six-lane highway from Mombasa to Nairobi

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State visits

Last week, Ruto was hosted to a five-day state visit by Chinese president Xi Jinping. Central to their discussions was the extension of the Standard Gauge Railway from Naivasha, where it is presently, to Malaba, Kenya’s border town with Uganda.

Two things stand out from the visits. First, they were both state visits. Unlike an official visit, a state visit is always instigated by the host president. It is also considered the epitome of the expression of bilateral relations between two sovereign nations.

It includes a number of ceremonies that culminate in a formal state dinner. On the sidelines of a state visit, networking is done to develop economic, cultural, and social links with industry leaders of the host nation.

Second, both visits have resulted in potential development projects to open up the Northern Corridor. This corridor is a transport route starting from Mombasa and running through Kenya, Uganda, Rwanda, Burundi, DR Congo, and South Sudan. There is urgency in developing this corridor for access to markets for both raw materials and finished goods.

Further, there is the threat of competition from the Central corridor that runs from the port city of Dar es Salaam in Tanzania to Rwanda, Burundi, and the DR Congo. Ceding traffic to this corridor would be detrimental to Kenya’s positioning as a logistical hub and regional financial centre.

Nothing in Kenya’s foreign policy precludes it from engaging development partners from the East, West, or Middle East. What Kenyans must be circumspect about is going through the fine print of such deals with a fine-tooth comb. The country should take heed lest it repeats mistakes of the past by being in hock to predatory lenders.

Mr Khafafa is a public policy analyst