Why Natembeya is the most influential Western region leader

Trans Nzoia Governor George Natembeya is the most influential politician in Western Kenya, a new Infotrak Research and Consulting poll has shown.

The poll conducted on December 29, 2025 in five counties namely Kakamega, Vihiga, Bungoma, Busia and Trans Nzoia and released on Thursday, shows that Natembeya influences Luhya politics, having garnered at least half of the support from counties sampled.

According to the poll, at least 50 per cent of respondents in Western Kenya counties said Natembeya influences Luhya politics, followed by Prime Cabinet Secretary Musalia Mudavadi who had 32 per cent support.

Presenting the findings of the report, Research Manager Moses Jarenga said 31 per cent of respondents said Orange Democratic Movement (ODM) Secretary General Edwin Sifuna is the third most influential politician in the region.

Speaker of the National Assembly Moses Wetang’ula is fourth with 29 per cent while Cooperatives Cabinet Secretary Wycliffe Oparanya is fifth with 14 per cent.

“By gender, more women at 53 per cent support Natembeya than male at 48 per cent. At least 39 per cent of the respondents were aged 18-38 years. His support was highest between the ages of 27-35, 36-45 and 46-55 at 53 per cent respectively,” Jarenga explained.

DAP-K leader Eugene Wamalwa was ranked sixth with 13 per cent, former Kakamega Senator Cleophas Malala at 10 per cent, Mumias East MP Peter Salasya garnered seven per cent, while Fred Gumo had five per  cent.

Saboti MP Caleb Amisi, Vihiga Senator Godfrey Osotsi, Busia Governor Paul Otuoma and Kimilili MP Didmus Barasa tied at one per cent each but 17 per cent of respondents refused to name any individual.

More women respondents support Mudavadi at 34 per cent compared to 30 per cent from the male, with his highest support recorded among respondents aged 55 and above while more male (36 per cent) than female (27 per cent) support Sifuna.

Asked who in their opinion is the primary political ‘kingpin’ of the Western region in terms of effectively championing the community’s rights, Jarenga said Natembeya topped the list with 36 per cent, with the highest recorded in Trans Nzoia at 50 per cent.

It is followed by Busia with 42 per cent then Bungoma (36 per cent), Kakamega (30 per cent) then Vihiga at 26 per cent.

At least 18 per cent said Mudavadi was their kingpin, with the highest recorded in Vihiga at 43 per cent then Busia and Trans Nzoia with 27 per cent and 20 per cent respectively while Wetang’ula, Oparanya and Sifuna scored 14 per cent, eight per cent and five per cent, each.

The poll has also shown that a majority of Kenyans in the Western region support Orange Democratic Movement (ODM) at 25 per cent followed United Democratic Alliance (UDA) commanding 20 per cent support.

Democracy for Citizens Party (DCP) was third, with 20 per cent saying they support it followed by Ford Kenya and Wiper Patriotic Front at 4 per cent.

ODM support was highest in Kakamega at 29 per cent, Busia with 27 per cent, followed by Trans Nzoia  Vihiga, and Bungoma at 26 per cent, 25 per cent and 18 per cent respectively.

The poll revealed that the highest support for UDA is in Bungoma with 27 per cent then VIhiga with 24 per cent and Trans Nzoia with 21 per cent while DCP had a larger support in Busia with 11 per cent and only 1 per cent in Vihiga.

 As far as preferred presidential aspirant is concerned, President William Ruto emerged top with 25 per cent followed by former Cabinet Minister Fred Matiang’i with 15 per cent, Natembeya at 13 per cent and Wiper Party leader, Kalonzo Musyoka with eight per cent.

Asked about issues that the community should prioritize most in national negotiations, 21 per cent said roads and infrastructure, 17 per cent others said cost of living, 12 per cent said market for agricultural produce while 11 per cent said revival of sugar industry.

Other issues the Western region residents want addressed are health services, youth employment, education, devolution funding and security.

The highest call to prioritize roads and infrastructure was made in Vihiga by 39 per cent of the respondents followed by 26 per cent others in Trans Nzoia while the need to address cost of living was  highest in Busia with 23 per cent.

Interviews were conducted through Computer Assisted Telephonic Interviews (CATI) and to ensure the findings were representative of the voters, 18 year old and above was proportionately distributed across the five counties.