Can Ruto's Western offensive turn Raila's base into his fortress?

The death of former Prime Minister Raila Odinga has ignited fresh political realignments across the Western region.

In the aftermath, President William Ruto has turned his focus to Western Kenya, a region long regarded as Raila’s political stronghold.

For decades, Raila held a firm grip on Western Kenya’s 2.2 million-strong voting bloc, often rallying the Luhya community behind his campaigns through the Orange Democratic Movement (ODM) party. 

His influence transcended party lines, shaping the region’s political direction and keeping it largely aligned with the opposition.

Now, with Raila gone, Ruto is making a calculated bid to fill the vacuum, banking on his alliance with local heavyweights and the recent Memorandum of Understanding (MoU) between his United Democratic Alliance (UDA) and ODM.

The MoU brought together top Western leaders including Prime Cabinet Secretary Musalia Mudavadi, National Assembly Speaker Moses Wetang’ula and ODM stalwart Wycliffe Oparanya, all now seen as central figures in Ruto’s “broad-based government.”

In recent days, Ruto has camped in Western Kenya in what analysts describe as an attempt to inherit a region that once belonged to Raila. He has toured Kakamega, Vihiga, Busia and Trans Nzoia counties, launching a string of development projects.

“The unity we have today between ODM and UDA is a product of our desire to end tribal and factional politics,” President Ruto said during a meeting in Kakamega. “We want to unite Kenyans beyond tribe and region. I am confident that this unity will deliver victory in 2027.”

President Ruto has intensified his presence in the region through a wave of projects, signaling a deeper political push ahead of the 2027 general election.

In Vihiga, he announced a Sh900 million upgrade of Kidundu Stadium, a Sh6 billion student housing initiative, Sh1.06 billion for electricity connections to 15,000 households and several key road and market projects.

“When we plan Kenya, we must also plan for Vihiga,” Ruto told residents at Ebukanga. “These developments are for the people but when the time comes, I will also ask for your support.”

Busia Governor Paul Otuoma, an ODM die-hard, also urged Ruto to “formally rejoin ODM” to cement Raila’s legacy of inclusivity and national cohesion.

“Our late leader laid the foundation; it’s upon us to build on it,” Otuoma said during a rally in Busia.

Analysts believe Ruto’s approach mirrors his 2022 strategy, using development promises to consolidate support in regions previously dominated by his rivals.

Regional leaders are now positioning themselves for national roles, arguing that Western Kenya deserves a bigger share of power if they support Ruto in 2027.

Lurambi MP Titus Khamala said the community’s support for Ruto should translate into the Deputy President’s position.

“We have one of the largest voting blocs. In 2027, we want the DP seat, it’s our time,” he declared.

MPs from Kakamega, including Christopher Aseka (Khwisero) and Elsie Muhanda (Woman Rep), have endorsed Oparanya as Ruto’s potential running mate, citing his leadership record and national appeal as a way of cementing the region’s loyalty to Ruto.

Political analyst Moses Ombayo believes that even after Raila’s death, Ruto’s partnership with ODM will reshape the race for Western votes, but warns that internal divisions could undermine his chances.

“If Ruto maintains unity with ODM, he will likely secure huge support from Western. But if a faction breaks away to form a regional Luhya party, his chances could diminish,” Ombayo noted. He added that the MoU might also influence Ruto’s 2027 running mate choice. “The Deputy President post could even go to a leader from Luo Nyanza to honour Raila’s legacy, leaving Western leaders in a delicate balancing act,” said Ombayo.

Analysts say President Ruto appears determined to inherit Raila’s once formidable political machinery. 

Ombayo argues that through strategic alliances, development promises, and appeals to unity, Ruto hopes to transform Western Kenya from Raila’s fortress into his own re-election pillar.

“Whether he succeeds will depend on whether the region remains united or divided by ambition,” said Ombayo.

Speaking at Ebukanga in Vihiga County, Central Organization of Trade Unions Secretary General Francis Atwoli compared the new political order in Western Kenya to a family inheritance. 

Competing ambitions

Meanwhile, Mudavadi has been rallying locals to stay aboard what he calls the “big ship”, Ruto’s broad-based government, warning against joining what he termed “small boats” led by the opposition alliance of former DP Rigathi Gachagua, Wiper leader Kalonzo Musyoka and Eugene Wamalwa of Democratic Action.

“The big ship has space for everyone,” the Prime CS told a gathering in Kakamega. “Western must remain part of this journey beyond 2027.”

As the race for 2027 intensifies, Ruto’s success in Western Kenya will hinge on how effectively he manages the competing ambitions of Mudavadi, Wetang’ula and Oparanya, while keeping ODM allies within his fold.

But not everyone is convinced.

The united opposition, led by Kalonzo, Gachagua, Martha Karua, Fred Matiang’i and Eugene Wamalwa, has vowed to challenge Ruto’s encroachment into Western Kenya. 

Political observers, including Caleb Amiani, believe Western Kenya remains the ultimate prize in 2027 for all those seeking the presidency. 

“For now, the once-solid ‘Raila bloc’ stands at a crossroads. With its kingpin gone and its leaders divided between loyalty and opportunity, Western Kenya has once again become the battleground for Kenya’s next great political realignment,” said Amiani.

“Every presidential hopeful knows that without Western, the path to State House is narrow,” he added.

Kakamega Governor Fernandes Barasa also called on the region to rally behind Ruto now for a stronger claim in 2032. “It’s Ruto’s two terms first — then Western can lead next,” Barasa said.