Why key observers are missing in Dar polls

Unlike previous presidential elections in Tanzania, mostly regional observer groups will be expected to monitor violations and irregularities of the electoral code when voters cast their ballots on Wednesday.

With President Samia Suluhu Hassan expected to win without tangible opposition, turnout is expected to be low, with little scrutiny from international observers.

The viral joke circulating in social media sharing apps, is that the three candidates running for elections in the East African country, are Samia, Suluhu and Hassan.

So far, delegations from African Union, East African Community and South Africa Development Cooperation have been accredited to oversee the elections and its credibility.

That is unlike in previous elections, when the European Union, Commonwealth Observer Group and many private missions from the across the world participated in scrutinising the exercise. There is no indication from their official websites that they will be taking part.

The last time Tanzania held a election under the watchful eye of international observers was in 2015, when voters elected former President John Pombe Magufuli to succeed Jakaya Mrisho Kikwete. With Samia as his running mate, Magufuli received 8.8 million votes, while opposition candidate of Chadema party Edward Lowassa garnered slightly over six million.

Observers, including a delegation from the EU trooped to Tanzania to cover those much anticipated elections, unlike the current scenario where none of the major watchdogs appear interested.

“In response to an invitation by the Tanzanian authorities, the European Union had deployed an Election Observation Mission to Tanzania to observe the presidential, parliamentary and local Council elections,” wrote Federica Mogherini, High Representative of the Union for Foreign Affairs and Security Policy and Vice-President of the European Commission in October 2015. 

It is worth noting that Kikwete, has recently been nominated by the Commonwealth Observer Group to lead its delegation of observers in Nigeria.

The Commonwealth Secretary-General, Patricia Scotland, constituted the observer group following an invitation from Nigeria’s Independent National Electoral Commission, and it includes politicians, diplomats and experts in law, human rights, gender and election administration from across the Commonwealth.

On Monday, Macharia Munene opined that observers are now not interested because the outcome is a foregone conclusion and what awaits Tanzanians is a mere ratification of Mama Samia as the President.

“The process has disqualified itself and does not deserve having a credible observer team. They do not want to discredit the role of observers and that is why they will not be present,” says the seasoned historian. 

Kenya is represented by Nyeri Woman Rep Rahab Mukami, on the African Union mission. Mukami is a close ally of President William Ruto.

Prof Munene is not surprised that she was nominated because she will most likely sing praises to President Samia as a good democrat and also give credit to the pre-determined elections

It has also been argued that although international observers are missing and domestic observers may not improve the quality of the polls, the latter could increase transparency and public awareness.

Researcher Nicodemus Minde’s overview is that the elections will not just reveal the extent of the country’s democratic decline, but also expose the weaknesses of international and regional observation missions.

“The political environment is marked by severe democratic regression with the main opposition parties disqualified from the presidential race. That places the country’s ruling party, Chama Cha Mapinduzi, on course for an easy, predicted landslide victory,” writes Minde.

He says a combination of government clampdowns and citizen disillusionment has dampened interest and engagement in the electoral process, which is likely to result in low voter turnout.

Over recent weeks, there has been increased State repression, abductions and enforced disappearances of government critics.

The media onslaught includes restrictive regulations and laws, which have led to a 25 per cent decrease in media freedom since 2016, according to the Reporters Without Borders Press Freedom Index.

Last month, the country’s most popular online platform, JamiiForums, was suspended for 90 days for publishing content deemed misleading and insulting to the government and President Samia

Since May, the social media platform X has been blocked, while Some traditional media outlets have resorted to self-censorship and government praise to avoid falling foul of the administration.

All this happens as the treason trial of Tundu Lissu, leader of the main opposition party Chama cha Demokrasia na Maendeleo (Chadema), continues.

“In this constrained context, some see election observers as the last line of defence.

But can they really put pressure on the Tanzanian government to deliver free and fair elections?” posed Minde.