Baba's exit ushers in new political era, redraws landscape for parties

The death of former Prime Minister Raila Odinga has automatically changed the country’s political landscape in a way that will leave his 20-year-old ODM party, the ruling party UDA, Opposition politics and even the government reeling from the shock waves.

He was a uniting figure within the ODM party that has been faced with internal strife, while to President William Ruto, he was a tower of a stability which gave his fledgling administration longevity after almost being toppled by the Gen Z street protests which forced him to sack his Cabinet.

The Opposition led by Wiper Leader Kalonzo Musyoka and former Deputy President Rigathi Gachagua has been hoping for a fallout between ODM and UDA cooperation agreement to install a formidable candidate against Ruto in the 2027 General Election. Now they will start circling like birds of prey, ready to pick up the pieces from the implosion they hope to happen.

Raila’s dominance in ODM created dependence on his endorsement and most of the  leaders who have been hanging on his coat are now on their own.

With Raila gone, all those who benefited from his political cards  have been  thrown off balance, and now have to go  back to the drawing board. 

Political strategists and analysts believe the internal strife within the ODM will only escalate following Raila’s exit which they feel will trigger a  conflict  between the young turks and the status quo which will lead to an eruption within the party that may lead to a major fallout threatening the extinction of the 20-year-old outfit.

ODM party has been facing wrangles since it entered into a partnership with Ruto’s administration through the broad-based government  arrangement that saw five of its officials appointed to serve in Ruto’s Cabinet.  They included John Mbadi (Treasury), Opiyo Wandayi (Energy) Hassan Joho (Mining and Blue Economy) and Wycliffe Oparanya (Cooperatives).

The Cabinet secretaries  became Ruto’s allies and became the choirmasters of the Tutam slogan — coined to advocate for Ruto second term in office — a move that further divided the ODM party.

The appointment of Kisumu Governor Anyang’ Nyong’o as the interim chairperson of the ODM party at the time Raila was busy conducting the African Union Commission chairmanship campaigns at the beginning of the year  further divided the party as those against the move questioned his continued anti-government stance.

While acting as the interim leader, Nyong’o reminded members that ODM was not an extension of the UDA administration and maintained that the party was a formidable force in shaping Kenya’s political landscape, firmly rooted in our principles and ideology.”

 “ODM party was founded as an independent, revolutionary and people-centred movement and it remains steadfast in such ideals. As a political entity, we understand the value of strategic partnerships. From time to time, we may choose to form alliances and coalitions with other parties or groups that align with our objectives and vision for Kenya,” Nyong’o said on December 6 last year.

The emergence of young turks within the ODM led by the party’s Secretary-General Edwin Sifuna, Babu Owino (Embakasi East MP) Caleb Amisi (Saboti MP) among others who have joined hands under the banner of Kenya Moja movement seeking ‘to liberate the country from the yokes of the mismanagement of the Ruto’s administration.

 Sifuna’s disdain against the Kenya Kwanza administration crystalised after he swore that he would lead a mass exodus from ODM if the party resolved to support Ruto’s re-election, a move that analysts now say threatens the cohesion of the ODM party.

“I will read all the resolutions that are made by organs of the ODM party except one; the day they will resolve that they will support Ruto in 2027 I will not read it,” he said two months ago.

Last week, Amisi dared Raila to step aside politics and leave the young turks the mandate of fighting for Kenyans.

“Wazee wenye wamekuwa kutoka enzi za Moi sina huruma nao (I have no sympathy for the old men who’ve been around since Moi’s era). Baba all of them should go and  I am telling you here that we respect you but release us to save this country.”

According Prof John Mwaruvie, an associate professor of History at Karatina University, ODM will undergo a major transition battle that will pit the young against the old akin to a political duel that was witnessed between Raila and Kijana Wamalwa as they fought for the soul of Ford Kenya after the death of Raila’s father, Jaramogi Oginga Odinga.

The battle for leadership that Mwaruvie was referring to happened in 1995 when Raila challenged Wamalwa  for the Ford Kenya leadership and had to resign to join the National Development Party (NDP) that he used for a by-election after resigning from Ford Kenya.

“The young leaders who seem to resonate with the youth movement in Kenya will seek to succeed Raila and since the old guards will fight back and possibly retain the status quo,  ODM will split after the youthful leaders who have a following decide to form their political vehicle,” noted Mwaruvie.

However, he noted that Raila’s death will not only trigger major tectonic shift within the ODM but to the rest of the political formation as youth may want to take over the management of the country’s politics.

Michael Oluoch a political analyst noted that the youthful leaders will be elbowed out of the party since their command of the youthful population was a threat to the middle aged and the old guards ‘who have always held the party in ransom.’

‘‘The elderly in the party henchmen who have always held the party at ransom know very well that once it  is taken over by youthful leaders, they will be edged out with new reforms which will see the party membership dominated by the new blood, thirsty for overhaul. Their politics of dominance and middle men who acted as stumbling blocks will also be quickly quashed,” he noted.

Gate pass

Oluoch added that the party will now be open for external competition due to Opposition figures who may now get a gate pass to seek voters across Raila’s past strongholds such as Coast, Western, Maa and Nyanza regions.

 “Raila’s death has made all the regions that tilted in his favour become swing vote, this means that the regions may go to either the government or to the Opposition and this is mainly because ODM as currently constituted does not have a capacity to field a presidential candidate,” he added.

President Ruto, Oluoch said needs to craft a strategy to endear himself to Raila’s strongholds saying Raila’s world would have been enough for him to inherit his constituency.

“Ruto may easily infiltrate ODM but he will not automatically inherit his support base, he must know what he needs to do to inherit the base since he doesn’t have Mt Kenya that largely voted him into office,” noted Oluoch.

Herman Manyora noted that leaders who have always hung on Raila’s coat needed to face their battles as their political careers are on the edge as their godfather was no more.

At the same time, Manyora observed that the move to install Raila’s brother Oburu Odinga as the acting party leader was wrong as the position needed a leader who commanded respect in and outside Luo Nyanza.

“You need to give the position to somebody who has a voice that can be respected first in Luo and secondly at the national level. It’s a way of maintaining ODM,” he said.

He said the ODM leaders would do a major miscalculation if they made the party a luo affair saying they needed to look for a leader outside the region to make it admirable to other regions.

“A non-Luo will be the best person to lead the party and I have no doubt in my mind that person has been brought there by history providence and that person is Sifuna first his stand is known he’s vocal he’s young he resonates with the young generation but more critically Raila’s death whether we like it or not whichever Whatever way it plays marks the transition.  this is a moment of intergenerational change.”