Why Kalonzo Musyoka could decide 2027 presidency

One of Kenya’s most underrated politicians, Kalonzo Musyoka, is arguably the most pivotal figure who could determine who occupies State House after the 2027 General Election.

Once derided as indecisive, a fence-sitter, and famously nicknamed a "watermelon", the Wiper Democratic Movement (WDM-K) leader is now among the most sought-after politicians in Kenya, courted by both the government and the opposition.

However, this renewed respect is a far cry from how he was treated just months ago. In February this year, President William Ruto condescendingly referred to Kalonzo as the "ndengu man", referencing green grams, one of the few crops that thrives in the relatively arid Ukambani region.

The President further dismissed Kalonzo’s criticisms of the government’s livestock vaccination programme, suggesting the Wiper leader lacked the education to question such policy.

Kalonzo had voiced concerns about the programme’s implementation, accusing the government of rolling it out in a clandestine manner without proper stakeholder engagement, comments that did not sit well with the Head of State.

Strategic outreach

President Ruto responded harshly:“Sasa kuna watu wengine wajinga wanatuambia tusichanje ng’ombe yetu tusipate soko la kitaifa. Si hiyo ni ukumbafu? Si tumekuwa tukichanja mifugo yetu tangu zamani?”
Loosely translated as; “There are some foolish people telling us not to vaccinate our livestock so we miss out on the national market. Isn’t that stupidity? We’ve been vaccinating animals for ages.”

Ruto also asserted that critics of his programme lacked the necessary academic qualifications to question him, proudly reminding the public that he holds a PhD.

Yet despite his past disparaging remarks, President Ruto, along with key allies, including former Deputy President Rigathi Gachagua, Deputy President Kithure Kindiki, and influential aide Farouk Kibet, has made concerted efforts to win Kalonzo over, reportedly offering him an undisclosed position in government.

On Wednesday, the President met with political, women, and grassroots leaders from Kitui County ahead of Mashujaa Day celebrations scheduled to be held in the area. The meeting was widely viewed as part of a broader strategy to woo the Akamba community into his political fold.

“We are marshalling the support of all Kenyans in our agenda to transform our country from Third World status to a prosperous nation that serves all citizens,” Ruto announced after the meeting.

“Our programmes and policies are changing lives and the landscape of Kenya in many ways. We discussed ongoing development in the county, including construction of roads, fresh produce markets, students’ hostels, affordable housing, and sustainable agriculture.”

Just last week, Kindiki expressed hope that Kalonzo might still change his mind and join the government. Speaking at his Irunduni home in Tharaka Nithi during a meeting with Kitui residents, Kindiki said: “Kalonzo is a noble and decent man, but he has aligned himself with individuals promoting divisive rhetoric. I have not given up on my brother. We cannot stand by as a learned man and scholar is influenced by sectarian politics.”

He urged locals not to worry, expressing confidence that he would eventually convince the Wiper leader to join forces with the government.

“I want to urge those in politics to refrain from inciting Kenyans or fuelling division and conflict among the public. Let everyone promote their policies, and those who agree with them will vote accordingly,” he stated.
He reiterated the government's commitment to working with like-minded leaders, both within and outside the administration, to promote national development.

Gachagua, who after the 2022 general election controversially claimed the Ukambani region did not deserve Cabinet positions due to its low voter turnout for the Kenya Kwanza coalition, has since changed his stance. 

Shortly after the 2022 election, Gachagua revealed that he had almost fallen out with President Ruto over the decision to appoint two Cabinet Secretaries from the Ukambani region, despite receiving few votes from the area.

Shifting loyalties

Speaking in Kitui on Saturday, Gachagua said: “I almost fell out with our President. He shared the government with you even though the votes from here were very few. He gave Alfred Mutua the Foreign Affairs docket and Peninah Malonza (Tourism) another post. I told him these appointees don’t have votes. But the President told me the Kamba people like him, and it’s their leaders who mislead them. He said he would stick with them until they loved him.”
Now, Gachagua seems to have had a change of heart and has been praising Kalonzo as a more stable and mature leader than others in the opposition. He even mocked ODM leaders who once called Kalonzo a "watermelon" for his perceived indecisiveness.

“Ruto should keep off family matters. There are efforts to lure Kalonzo into government, but being the cunning politician he is, Ruto will make him Deputy and then sponsor his impeachment. I am the official spokesperson for our cousins,” Gachagua said on Monday in Kitui.

Political analyst Professor John Mwaruvie, an Associate Professor of History at Karatina University, believes Kalonzo’s calm demeanour, diplomatic nature, and solid political base make him the most prized figure in Kenya’s current political landscape.

“He joined politics in 1985 and rose through the ranks — Assistant Minister, Minister, and eventually Vice President. This history makes him the man who can shift the political balance ahead of the 2027 General Election. He is the glue holding the opposition together. If he defects, the opposition will collapse,” Professor Mwaruvie noted.

Mwaruvie added that Kalonzo’s experience and untainted record appeal to both sides, but warned that joining government as a deputy again could end his political future.

Dr Peter Mbae of the Democratic Citizens Party said Kalonzo commands 2.5 million votes and directs them at will — unlike Mt Kenya where leaders follow the electorate.

“His base makes him the political bride courted by both camps,” Dr Mbae observed.