Uhuru's dilemma and Matiang'i's anti-climax

The much-anticipated unveiling of former Cabinet Secretary Fred Matiang’i as the Jubilee Party's 2027 presidential elections flag bearer by the Special National Delegates Convention (SNDC) on Friday did not happen.

Interestingly, Matiang’i, who turned up dressed in the party’s red colours, was neither acknowledged nor given a chance to address the delegates. He just sat there as an ordinary member, looking jovial and enjoying the occasion.

“Was it a tactical move or was it meant to pass a message to him? He turned up in party colours, yet he has in the past denied being a Jubilee party member. That in itself is a huge statement,” says fellow opposition team member Philip Kisia.

It is not clear why Uhuru convened the NDC, but some pundits think it was purposed to be a disguised relaunch of the fast-fading outfit through unveiling new faces like Matiang’i.

He fought a long court battle to wrestle back the party from President Ruto’s chokehold and the High Court finally handed it back to his full control of Jubi

 The court decision brought to an end a protracted battle for control of the Jubilee Party, dealing a momentous blow to a rebel faction led by EALA MP Kanini Kenga and Muranga Woman rep Sabina Chege that had sought to oust him from leadership.

The High Court validated the resolutions of the Jubilee Party’s Special National Delegates Convention (SNDC) held in May 2023, which reinstated Uhuru as party leader and restructured the party’s top leadership.

The court’s decision also restored Saitoti Torome as the National Chairman and Jeremiah Kioni as Secretary-General. Jubilee chairman Nelson Dzuya’s withdrawal of support to the Kega-led group influenced te court decision.

And so it appears Uhuru is now focused on reorganizing party without further change of personnel in its leadership. The Kanini Kega and Sabina Chege group that defected to Ruto’s camp now also find themselves in a very complicated situation.

Uhuru wants to bring into the fold people who can give Jubilee some vibrancy, with Matiang’i’s candidature acting as a catalyst. Andati however, cautions that it is not going to be a walk in the park because Matiang’i has never run for any political office.

He is also not a grassroots operator like Rigathi Gachagua and lacks the aggressiveness of the impeached former deputy president, who drew large crowds recently in some parts of the country, spreading the “hi cousins’ crusade for two months.

And when he left for the US, many Kenyans still followed what he was doing there, yet nobody was following what Matiang’i was doing here and even when he was domiciled in the US for many months.

Andati rates Matiangi as a good worker and implementer but not a good political operator. Another disadvantage is that he also lacks charisma when compared to politicians like Raila, Ruto and Gachagua.

Before Friday, Matiang’i had been holding low-key meetings, moving around the country accompanied by former cabinet colleague Peter Munya. He also occasionally attended joint opposition gatherings convened by Gachagua.

 Some political pundits have argued that Uhuru may slowly pave way for Matiang’i to take charge of the party to grow his influence, while others think the former president still plans to remain in active politics past 2027, while using it for bargaining power. 

Sources within the party had indicated that Matiangi would have been endorsed as deputy party leader to take over from former Kitutu Chache North MP Jimmy Angwenyi, who is also from Kisii but it never materialized.

Some Jubilee leaders wanted Matiangi included in the leadership structure to not only popularize him as a presidential candidate but also to raise his stature among opposition colleagues, and also provide oomph to Jubilee’s dented profile.

No resolutions were, however, communicated after the SNDC where focus and attention were trained on Uhuru, who dwelt more on addressing the achievements the party made when it was in power.  

“I doubt if he will leave position of party leader. Uhuru uses the party to negotiate and so he cannot let go. They also know Matiang’i alone cannot steady the ship and also get votes in Uhuru’s former base of the Mt Kenya region,” says analyst Martin Andati.

He also thinks Matiang’i’s campaign  has lost steam from the time his name was touted as a potential presidential candidate last year. His numbers are plummeting at a very fast rate, hence the need for Uhuru’s vibrant support.

But the former CS also faces another challenge posed by Gachagua who is now enjoying bigger support than Uhuru in the Mt Kenya region and within opposition circles.

“Riggy G will have a bigger influence in the Mt Kenya area because they now consider Uhuru as part of the past and not the future. It is going to be a tall order for them to sell that ticket,” says Andati.

Matiang’i will also have to navigate the hurdle of being considered an Uhuru project if he is picked, an experience the former president went through after he was endorsed as Kanu candidate in 2002 by former president Daniel arap Moi.

In 2022, Raila Odinga’s bid also faced challenges during his campaign as the Azimio la Umoja presidential candidate. His opponent William Ruto dubbed him an Uhuru project after the retired president supported the ODM leader.

“As long as Uhuru's shadow is still there, Matiangi remains a project and his candidature may be dead on arrival but it is good that they are re-organizing the party and bringing fresh faces to make it more active,” added Andati.’’

While not dismissing Matiangi’s suitability, Kisia argues that Kenyans will go for the most suitable candidate to replace President Ruto, like they did when President Mwai Kibaki was elected in 2002.

“We want another Kibaki moment of 2002. In 2013, Musalia Mudavadi was the most ideal person who should have succeeded Kibaki, but his time is now in the past. We have very suitable leaders in the opposition now,” added Kisia.

He also thinks Jubilee has taken a huge beating from the time they left power two years ago and Uhuru should therefore focus more on rebuilding it than on propping up a presidential candidate.

To strengthen Jubilee, he suggests they stop talking about presenting a presidential candidate and instead concentrate on getting more elected county assembly members, MPs, governors and senators because most have defected to President Ruto’s UDA party.

He also advises Uhuru to work towards restoring his legacy that has been damaged by Ruto’s assault on Jubilee. That way he will leave behind a strong former ruling party when he hands it over to the next leadership.

“As a former president, I don’t think he may want to head a political party beyond the next few years. His only option is to work hard and rebuild it so that he can pass over a strong party with a national appeal,” says Kisia.

Asked why Uhuru may settle on Matiang’i as the Jubilee candidate, Andati says he will invest time and resources in a friend with an intention of pulling the strings from behind the scenes.

It was whispered during Raila's candidature in 2022 that Uhuru supported him on condition that he be appointed Prime Minister in a pre-election pact. Some pundits argue that he may strike a similar deal with Matiang’i.

Andati does not see Matiangi and Uhuru joining Ruto, but the president and his ally Raila will ensure the former CS does not deliver even the entire Kisii vote, which is in his backyard.

He also fears Matiang’i’s campaign may not pick up traction, but it is only when the Jubilee team meets the reality that they will take their rightful positions in the opposition to support Kalonzo Muyoka, Gachagua and the rest.

Matinagi is also disadvantaged by Gachagua’s demands that each opposition leader in the group must demonstrate that he or she can deliver substantial numbers from their backyards based on available scientific data.

Andati thinks Gachagua will most likely support Kalonzo as the presidential candidate with Governor George Natembeya as his running mate. He suspects three more positions will be created to accommodate Gachagua, Matiangi and a candidate from the coast region.