The big scramble: Ruto, Gachagua, Uhuru face off over Kiambu in fight for Mt Kenya

President William Ruto and his backers in Central Kenya want to divide the troublesome voting bloc. Former Deputy President Rigathi Gachagua wants a united mountain, while Kenya’s fourth president, Uhuru Kenyatta, is trying to reclaim his backyard and hand it over to former Cabinet Secretary Fred Matiang’i.

But as all this complex plotting unfolds, Deputy President Kithure Kindiki is conflicted.

He does not know whether to unite or split the mountain. One thing is certain: if he can hold the mountain together, he may as well kiss his lucrative position goodbye in 2027.

Political activities have heightened in the Mt Kenya region as President Ruto continues to pursue strategies to divide and rule the populous area after his fallout with his former deputy.

On the other hand, a fresh battle looms between Gachagua and Uhuru over plans to hand the Jubilee Party presidential ticket to Matiang’i.

After losing popularity following Gachagua’s impeachment, Ruto has tried several strategies to woo Mt Kenya voters.

These include deploying Kindiki to oversee the disbursement of funds in questionable economic empowerment drives, inviting delegations to State House, sending allies to attend church fundraisers, and enticing Mt Kenya East (Embu, Meru, and Tharaka Nithi counties) with the promise that their son Kindiki is in government.

The government has also unleashed a fresh strategy of using certain leaders in Kiambu County to push for a breakaway from the larger Mt Kenya region.

If successful, this move may persuade the county to consolidate its votes and enable Ruto to secure at least 1.2 million votes, boosting his re-election campaign in 2027.

Word on the street has it that during Kenyatta’s era, a cabal dubbed the “Kiambu mafia” ruled the country and ensured that the northern part of Kikuyu land was denied influential leadership positions.

There have also been efforts by political architects to revive rivalry between Kiambu and other counties, especially Nyeri, as nearly happened in 2002 when Mwai Kibaki contested against Uhuru.

In this scheme of things, Murang’a and Kirinyaga are expected to feel belittled, as they have always had to support Kiambu and Nyeri. These two counties have each produced three presidents and two deputy/vice presidents since 1963.

Political analysts believe the Kenya Kwanza administration hopes to exploit these rivalries to incite Kiambu against other counties in a divide-and-rule approach.

National Assembly Majority Leader Kimani Ichung’wah has been at the forefront of pushing this agenda, assisted by other elected leaders from the county.

His petition appeared to gain traction after Kindiki endorsed the move in State House on Wednesday. At the meeting, Ruto hosted a delegation of 5,000 grassroots leaders from the county.

Ichung’wah’s argument is that Kiambu has long been grouped under Mt Kenya for political and cultural convenience, despite being distinct in identity.

“We have christened the people of Kiambu as the Mt Kenya region, but the mountains they see are Kilimambogo and Ngong Hills. They are a region by themselves,” Ichung’wah said.

Kindiki echoed these sentiments, saying the push for separation was timely and would empower the county to shape its own destiny.

“For me, I endorse those saying Kiambu is a region by itself. Kiambu ni fire, si fire,” he said.

Other legislators from the county who have endorsed the move include Njoroge Kururia (Gatundu North), Ann Wamuratha (Women’s Representative), and Gabriel Kagombe (Gatundu South). They argue that Kiambu is extremely populous and deserves separation from sister counties Nyeri, Murang’a, Kirinyaga, and Laikipia.

“We have about 1.5 million votes, equal to the votes of the other four Mt Kenya counties combined.

‘‘We don’t want the President to say he has been to Kiambu when he visits Mt Kenya.

‘‘As Kiambu, we are a stand-alone region. We want our own development plans, our CSs and PSs,” Kururia said.

Githunguri MP Gathoni Wamuchomba dismissed the move as a “divisive strategy”, saying it would fail as it did with Mt Kenya East and Mt Kenya West.

“Kiambu County MPs went to the house on the hill escorted by 4,800 people to declare that Kiambu County is not part of Mt Kenya. So, our biggest problem in Kiambu County is being a Mt Kenya County? Did they mean our roads are all done, hospitals complete, aggregation centres in place, and farmers of coffee, milk and tea are happy, leaving separation as the only business?”

She castigated Ichung’wah for leading the “choir” while refusing to admit her letter calling for one-man-one-shilling when he chaired the National Dialogue Committee (Nadco) — a move she argued would have increased revenue allocation.

“As Majority Leader, he also had the chance to implement the constitutional requirement of boundary delimitation to give overpopulated constituencies fair representation. So, will this decision affect the capitation funds allocated to our schools?” she added.

Kiambu politician Charles Munyui said leaders were misguided in pushing for a breakaway instead of fighting for increased revenue allocation.

“The only way to benefit the county is by pushing for a formula that would earn us more revenue, or advocating to have the county divided into two for higher allocations,” he said.

As Ruto and his allies move to isolate Kiambu, the looming Jubilee National Delegates Conference called by Uhuru is expected to culminate in the handing over of leadership to Matiang’i — a move critics argue will fuel further confusion in a region increasingly aligned to Gachagua.

According to John Mwaruvie, Associate Professor of History at Karatina University, if these strategies succeed, the region will be fragmented, and unity will take years to restore.

“The government seems determined to divide the Mt Kenya region into three — Kiambu, Mt Kenya West and Mt Kenya East.

‘‘In that scenario, every region will have its own spokesperson, but to whose advantage?”

Prof Mwaruvie added: “Once Mt Kenya is divided, it will be easy for anyone to penetrate and get votes from the region.

‘‘A divided mountain will lack bargaining power. Listening to the former Deputy President, he claimed to have negotiated for the region, and seats were distributed accordingly — if his account was true.”

He recalled that efforts to divide Mt Kenya date back to colonial and post-colonial administrations, when its numerical strength threatened those in power.

With the return of the Akamba community into the Gema (Gikuyu, Embu, Meru Association) bloc, the government felt even more threatened.

“That is why it now poses a bigger challenge when the Kamba are being incorporated into the region. It becomes a threat to those seeking national power.

‘‘The same unity threatened the State after the formation of GEMA, which again brought these groups together.”

On Uhuru propping up Matiang’i, Mwaruvie argued it was an attempt to appease other communities and counter the notion of entitlement projected by some government apologists.

“It could be seen as a way of appeasement and a way of countering the idea that only Mt Kenya and the Rift Valley have held onto power since independence. In this move, Uhuru would be playing the role of a reconciler,” he said.

According to Mwaruvie, Uhuru’s move would also humble Gachagua, who has presented himself as the region’s spokesperson, and force him to become a team player with other Opposition parties.

“Gachagua has to realise he cannot succeed as a lone ranger. There are other parties in the Mt Kenya region he thinks he can overshadow with his own party. This will boomerang on the unity he claims to advance,” he said.

Political analyst Pius Kinuthia believes Gachagua will be the biggest casualty if Uhuru props up Matiang’i, as his influence will diminish.

“He has bullied the region into his party. If Uhuru hands the Jubilee leadership mantle to Matiang’i, Uhuru’s supporters will ditch Gachagua for Matiang’i.

‘‘This will be a major blow to Gachagua’s efforts to command the region even beyond 2027, since his party will lack the majority of elected leaders from the region,” Kinuthia said.

Gachagua plans to use the upcoming by-elections scheduled for 27 November to test whether he has consolidated his Mt Kenya base.

Kindiki, too, will be judged by the United Democratic Alliance’s performance in the by-elections.

If he is defeated by Gachagua in the Mbeere North parliamentary contest, his chances of being picked as Ruto’s running mate will be slim.