Two term? William Ruto's plan to split opposition and retain power in 2027

Kenya’s Opposition is facing a major test of unity ahead of the 2027 General Election, amid reports that President William Ruto has devised a strategic plan to divide and weaken it in his bid to retain power.

The government, through its allies, has reportedly initiated efforts to woo Wiper Party leader Kalonzo Musyoka, promising him the position of Deputy President in 2027 should he cross over to Ruto’s camp.

At the same time, the Democratic Action Party of Kenya (DAP-K) is grappling with internal turmoil following what has been described as a “bloodless coup” by Deputy Party Leader and Trans Nzoia Governor George Natembeya against party leader Eugene Wamalwa.

Both Wamalwa and Natembeya, vocal critics of the Kenya Kwanza administration, have expressed interest in running for the presidency. Their rivalry has triggered leadership wrangles within DAP-K, threatening the cohesion of the party. Mumias East MP Peter Salasya, also elected on a DAP-K ticket, has declared his own presidential ambition and has been touring the country positioning himself as a contender—further straining the party’s unity.

The party’s parliamentary group recently issued a statement blaming external forces for fuelling the conflict and accused Natembeya of attempting an unconstitutional takeover.

“Any effort by Governor Natembeya to launch an unconstitutional takeover of DAP Kenya-targeting the party leader and the national leadership-will be met with resolute resistance. We are aware of his newly formed political party and caution him against attempts to destabilize DAP-K as he makes his exit,” the statement read.

In response, Natembeya criticised the party leadership for failing to rebrand and for limiting its influence to Western Kenya.

“The murmurs within DAP-K are about a divide between conservatives and those of us who want to rebrand the party beyond Western Kenya. The challenge lies in opening the party to all Kenyans and allowing diverse voices. Some are resisting this expansion, but we believe DAP-K has the potential to grow nationally,” he said.

These internal wrangles have shifted DAP-K’s focus from its role as a government watchdog to in-fighting. Meanwhile, the government’s overtures to Kalonzo are causing unease among the Opposition, with fears he may be perceived as a government apologist.

Last month, former Deputy President Rigathi Gachagua, currently in the United States, claimed that President Ruto had made several attempts to contact him for reconciliation.

“He has tried reaching out to me severally but I did not deem it important to respond to his calls. Our priority is to remove him from office in 2027 and this can’t be solved through talks,” he said in a media interview.

He claimed the President is deliberately attempting to fracture the opposition ahead of the 2027 elections.

“Ruto is trying to divide the opposition, so that he may pass in between. He is dangerous, has money and is very cunning and many people like money. Very few people can be able to withstand corruption through money,” he said.

Kitui Senator Enock Wambua dismissed the government’s attempts to woo Kalonzo, calling the strategy tired and ineffective. “This is a lazy tactic. Ruto is wasting time trying to break the Opposition instead of serving Kenyans,” he said.

Gatanga MP Edward Muriu also affirmed that the Opposition remained united. “We are wiser and aware of the traps being laid to divide us. But we will front one candidate in 2027. We know the tricks, fake news, attempts to lure our leaders, but they’ll fail,” he stated.

Political analyst Professor Peter Kagwanja warned that any Opposition leader who defects to join the government risks political oblivion. “They’re no longer shaping the political discourse, they only stand with the people. Joining Ruto would mark their end,” he said.

The President has also been accused of meddling in the affairs of political parties. The Jubilee Party, for instance, saw a faction allied to the government stage a coup to replace former President Uhuru Kenyatta and Secretary-General Jeremiah Kioni with nominated MP Sabina Chege and EALA MP Kanini Kega. This takeover was overturned by the courts, reinstating Kenyatta and Kioni.

According to Kioni, the President continues to undermine political party independence, violating the spirit of the National Dialogue Committee (NADCO) agreements. “Opposition parties are facing state-sponsored destabilisation. By bringing ODM into government informally and failing to register the deal with the Registrar of Political Parties, the President violated the law,” Kioni said.

A faction within ODM, led by Saboti MP Caleb Amisi, accused Ruto of sowing confusion within the party, warning that unless ODM leadership acts decisively, the plan to divide the party could succeed. “Ruto’s aim is to split ODM. The leadership must wake up before it’s too late,” Amisi warned.