How Mzee Moi's prophecy on Kenya and multipartism has been fulfilled

Before the repeal of Section 2A, the late President Moi warned that multiparty politics would divide Kenya along ethnic lines. It has come to pass. Moi had flaws, but on this prophecy, he looks like a saint.

Three decades after multipartyism, we have over one hundred registered parties, and almost every major community has more than one. We have produced no ideology, only merchants.

The cycle since 2002 has been relentless with coalitions. NARC in 2002, PNU in 2007, ODM, CORD in 2013, Jubilee in 2013 and 2017, NASA in 2017, then Azimio la Umoja and Kenya Kwanza in 2022. Azimio has now metamorphosed into the Ukombozi Alliance. And now new offshoots - Linda Ground, Linda Mwananchi - plus Rigathi Gachagua hinting at what he calls a hyena coalition to crush Ruto next year. Where does this leave the oneness of the nation?

Every cycle breeds new outfits. What pushes politicians to launch briefcase parties that sell no ideas? Is it the Political Parties Fund? The monthly deductions from winners? Or the bargaining chip with the winning coalition? It may be all three.

Why is Ndindi Nyoro forming a party? Why did Uhuru Kenyatta cling to Jubilee instead of letting it go to Fred Matiang’i? Why keep PNU, Kanu and Ford Kenya alive? Musalia Mudavadi was right to disband his briefcase ANC party. The logic is simple: Parties eye cash, not governance. More MPs mean more deductions and more money from the Exchequer.

The tribal arithmetic followed. What ideology does a Luo party sell that a Kisii party does not? What principle does a Mount Kenya party hold that a Kamba party rejects? Nothing. Every community wants its own house. Luos have ODM plus splinters. Luhyas have Ford Kenya, DAP-K and Roots Party. Kambas have Wiper and others. Kikuyus have UDA, Jubilee, PNU and now Ndindi’s PPK.

Then came devolution in 2010 with 47 counties. It was meant to bring power closer and reduce ethnic competition at the centre. Coupled with many parties, it has done the opposite. We are more polarised. Each county wants a governor from the dominant clan; each sub-tribe wants an MP. Parties became tools for clan arithmetic, not policy.

Where do communities with no party find convergence when parties are tools of access, not ideology? Turkana, Rendille, El Molo and Kenyan Asians become orphans in a system where numbers are bought, not built. Defections tell the story. Politicians are never driven by ideology. They migrate from Azimio to Kenya Kwanza, from Jubilee to UDA, from ODM to Linda Ground, depending on where largesse flows.

Contrast this with functional democracies. In the USA, a nation of 340 million, two dominant parties endure, and members follow ideology religiously. Defections are rare. Britain has three main parties that have shaped politics for generations: Labour for social democracy and unions, Conservatives for market and tradition, and Liberal Democrats for liberal reform. Germany has CDU, SPD, and the Greens competing on clear programmes.

Tanzania’s CCM and South Africa’s ANC, for all their flaws, are national movements with history, ideology and organs. They do civic education, have youth and women leagues that meet, and publish policy papers beyond a manifesto printed two weeks before elections.

Kenyan parties die with the founder. When Moi left KANU, it collapsed. When Kibaki left PNU, it vanished. When Raila passed on, ODM, which is 20 years old, splintered into Linda Ground and Linda Mwananchi. Parties die with founders.

A party should be more than a ballot colour. It should be a tool of governance. Enforce internal democracy through free nominations, not direct tickets sold to the highest bidder. Fight for justice, not jobs for relatives. Do civic education in villages, explain budgets and rights. Share information, not propaganda.

Moi warned multipartyism would bring tribalism. We laughed. Now each tribe has parties, each party has one tribe, each leader carries a briefcase to collect cheques from the Registrar. Prophecy matured. In Western, Sifuna, Wetangula, Eugene, Amisi, Khalwale and Osotsi all own parties. For what? What ideology beyond narrow interests?

Until we delink funding from numbers and tie it to ideology, internal democracy and national footprint, we breed briefcases.

Mr Nyaringo is a public affairs commentator based in Washington, US