Ruto should encourage more people to join the presidential race

Our so-called united opposition needs to watch Enoch Sikolia’s 'The Fall of Jaramogi and Matiba' in 1992. In his series, The Kenyan Historian, Sikolia tells how the leading opposition presidential candidate, Kenneth Matiba, lost the 1992 election to the political ingenuity of the incumbent president, Daniel arap Moi.

The strategy was simple: Instead of directly crushing the Opposition, the State machinery subtly worked to build the public profiles of individual opposition figures and convince them that they were presidential material.

And so it came to pass that just as the Opposition appeared to be coalescing around Jaramogi, Mwai Kibaki emerged to declare his interest. Soon after, Matiba, who had reportedly been persuaded to drop out in support of Jaramogi, changed his mind and stubbornly said, “If Kibaki is running, then I am running too!”

And just like that, the formidable Forum for the Restoration of Democracy (FORD) split into FORD–Kenya and FORD–Asili, and later fractured further when FORD–People emerged. Three presidential candidates, all from the same political lineage, competed against each other. Divide and rule had been perfected.

How did it work? Former State House Comptroller Franklin Bett explained it succinctly: The State machinery simply stoked the egos of opposition leaders, persuading each that they were the most suitable candidate.

Matiba was first encouraged to believe he was younger and stronger than Jaramogi. When Kibaki later entered the race, Matiba’s ego was pricked again, enough to abandon unity and rejoin the contest. Bett even hinted that the massive crowds welcoming Matiba back from London may not have been entirely spontaneous.

History, it seems, is repeating itself. As we head toward the 2027 presidential election, a growing number of political figures are once again emerging from the woodwork to declare presidential ambitions.

One man must be relishing every moment, every time someone picks up a microphone at a public gathering to say hata mimi ninatosha. If the principle of divide and rule is anything to go by, then William Samoei Ruto would love it if we have as many presidential candidates on the ballot next year as possible—many, ideally one per county, even better one per tribe, sub-tribe, or clan.

As such, it must have been music to Ruto’s ears when Vihiga Senator Godfrey Osotsi emerged from a funeral ceremony in Vihiga to declare that Nairobi Senator Edwin Sifuna “has what it takes to lead the country.”

The music got even better when, barely five months later, Embakasi MP Babu Owino took to the podium to declare that he was “overqualified” for the presidency.

What if Oburu Odinga and his allies abandoned talk of deputy presidency, and “reaffirm” that ODM must field a presidential candidate—himself.

Things are no better in our so-called united opposition, a political fallacy in a country where the last 'united opposition' happened 24 years ago, when one opposition candidate, Raila Amolo Odinga, frustrated by the back-and-forth to unite a deeply divided opposition, declared “Kibaki Tosha.”

From precedent, the odds are stacked high against a united opposition in Kenya. Just listen carefully to Rigathi Gachagua, Kalonzo Musyoka, Martha Karua, and the freshly minted Fred Matiang’i. Their political messaging is as confusing as the colours they wear during their 'united opposition' rallies. It says: We shall have one opposition candidate—and that candidate shall be me.

Political pundits are still taking bets on when Eugene Wamalwa will also host a rally in his home turf, Trans Nzoia, and have his supporters chanting “Wamalwa tosha” after every sentence in his speech.

Then his political nemesis, Governor George Natembeya, shall build a higher podium, and right there we shall have two presidential candidates from one 'village', which works perfectly well for Ruto.

For Ruto to become President for a second term, Gachagua, Kalonzo, Karua, Matiang’i, and even Eugene’s names must all appear on the ballot in 2027.

It is even more urgent for the President to quietly prod more people, including those who cannot even win an election for membership of the local cattle dip committee, to declare interest in next year’s presidential poll. The more, the merrier!