How Kenya risks being old before becoming rich
Opinion
By
Joshua Wathanga
| Dec 21, 2025
What exactly is Kenya’s demographic moment, and why is it urgent to act while the window is open? A demographic window refers to the period in a country’s development when the share of people of working age rises, and the proportion of dependants falls.
More adults are available to work, save, innovate, and contribute to national productivity. This creates a potential demographic dividend. The window eventually closes as fertility continues to decline and the population begins to age. When the share of older dependants rises, economic pressures shift. Countries that fail to act early often discover that the dividend they expected never materialised.
History gives us clear evidence. East Asia’s remarkable rise between 1960s and 1990s was not driven by demography alone, but by what governments chose to do with it. Countries like South Korea and Singapore matched falling fertility with heavy investment in education, skills, industrial capability, and export competitiveness. Their strategies were intentionally youth-centred. The results were visible in accelerated growth and rising incomes.
By contrast, several Latin American economies went through demographic transition without coordinated investments in human capital or job-rich sectors. They saw modest gains, slower productivity growth, and persistent inequality. The lesson is simple. A demographic window is not a guarantee. It is an opportunity that rewards disciplined policy and punishes neglect.
Kenya today sits squarely in this moment. About three-quarters of Kenya’s population is under 35. Fertility is falling, though unevenly. Young people are entering the labour force in large numbers, yet many sectors predict minimal employment growth. If we do not align our economic strategy with our age structure, we risk becoming a nation that grows old before prosperity. In short, converting Kenya’s youth bulge into a national advantage requires a production-led approach in which demographic realities shape economic priorities and the sequencing of national reforms.
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Maximising this moment means treating the youth bulge and human capital agenda as the fulcrum of national planning. This involves three shifts. First, Kenya needs a coherent, productive jobs strategy anchored in sectors that can absorb youth at scale. Agro-processing, construction, light manufacturing, digital services, green energy, logistics, and the care economy hold significant potential. Public investment and regulation should prioritise these sectors because they are labour-intensive and export-enabling.
Second, human capital must be treated as economic infrastructure. TVET institutions need resources, updated equipment, and genuine industry partnerships. Recruitment processes must become more transparent and humane. Young people need fair pathways, not gatekeeping. Third, we need disciplined sequencing. Kenya cannot invest in everything. We must choose reforms and sectors that can create jobs for millions over the next decade. The demographic window is open, but it will not remain so. Acting now, with clarity and unity of purpose, is the difference between a missed moment and a national transformation.