Why only coalitions will define Kenya post 2027

In Kenya’s peculiar democracy, when you ask which coalition controls Parliament, the answer is not as black and white as it would be elsewhere. It depends on who you ask. To the Judiciary, Azimio la Umoja remains the majority alliance. To the parliamentary leadership, particularly the Speaker, it is Kenya Kwanza.

That contradiction was crystallised by a recent High Court ruling that overturned the Speaker’s declaration naming Kenya Kwanza as the majority coalition. The judges found that several Azimio MPs had been reassigned without evidence of valid post-election agreements, exposing, once again, how the lines between law and politics in Kenya often blur.

This ambiguity captures the essence of Kenya’s coalition politics as the country edges toward the 2027 general election. The next contest will not simply be about parties but about the alliances they forge, fracture, or abandon. Coalition arithmetic, who joins, who leaves, and who stays neutral, will likely determine who governs.

Since 2024, the government has championed what it calls a broad-based approach, drawing in parties and leaders beyond the traditional Kenya Kwanza fold. In practice, this has blurred the boundary between government and opposition, creating what some describe as a coalition of convenience. At the same time, internal turbulence within major parties, including those once central to opposition politics, has deepened uncertainty. Some members have embraced this broad-based framework as a new form of political survival, while others see it as the quiet death of accountability.

Meanwhile, a United Opposition is beginning to take shape, composed of former and current Azimio-affiliated parties, as well as those who have fallen out with Kenya Kwanza. Together, they present themselves as the moral counterweight to the government. Their message of unity and reform has revived debate over whether Kenya’s opposition can reinvent itself into a credible alternative or will once again fracture under the weight of competing ambitions.

The Kenya Moja initiative, for instance, reflects the disillusionment of younger voters demanding change. It has tapped into frustrations with corruption, inequality, and stagnant leadership, yet lacks clear structure or policy direction. Without coherence and organisation, it risks becoming another movement long on slogans but short on strategy, mirroring the very politics it seeks to upend.

Coalition-building in Kenya rarely follows ideology. It is driven more by rational strategy and survival instincts, what political scientists describe as rational choice behaviour where actors form alliances not out of conviction but necessity. Under Kenya’s devolved system and majoritarian presidential elections, politicians must craft broad alliances that can deliver both national vote thresholds and in local representation. It is a delicate balancing act that makes or breaks political fortunes.

Regionally, Kenya’s situation is not unique. Coalition governments have produced mixed results across Africa. In Malawi, the once-promising Tonse Alliance between MCP and UTM began as a model of unity but later fractured. Those divisions ultimately contributed to MCP’s loss in the 2025 elections, serving as a cautionary tale of how fragile coalitions can quickly unravel when trust and purpose fade.

Elsewhere, coalitions have both stabilised and destabilised politics. South Africa’s post-2024 experiment with coalition governance, following the ANC’s first loss of parliamentary majority, demonstrated both promise and peril. While it created space for multiparty cooperation, it also exposed the difficulty of governing amid constant negotiation and competing interests.

As 2027 approaches, Kenya’s political actors face a choice: to repeat the cyclical coalition deals of the past or to redefine alliances as instruments of governance and accountability. The arithmetic may decide who wins, but the integrity of the coalition and the vision it carries will decide how Kenya is governed after the votes are counted.