How current political ongoings might affect various 'kingpins'

The Court of Appeal has quashed Deputy Chief Justice's October 18, 2024 orders. These orders assigned three petitions, challenging the ouster of Rigathi Gachagua as deputy president (DP), to three judges. Interpretation of what this means is obviously beyond the ken of laymen. Even seasoned legal practitioners are divided. Some opine that this is a major win for Kenya’s second DP. Others say the victory is pyrrhic and may not change much in Kenya’s current political landscape.

One thing is certain though. The relationship between President William Ruto and Kenya’s second DP is irretrievably broken down. The events of June 25 last year and the protocol faux pas that saw Gachagua speak out of turn revealed the Rubicon to have been crossed. There can be no going back. Some observations arise that have bearing on the political vicissitudes of a number of characters.

The first is whether Mr Gachagua’s return to the current presidency is justiciable. This is assuming that the former DP’s legal endevours are successful and his impeachment is overturned. Even with the law on his side, the fractious relationship that has obtained between him and the President would set the stage for further confrontation.

Second is the political position of the current DP, Prof Kithure Kindiki. Kindiki’s prosaic and laid-back demeanor makes for the ideal DP. But this also works to his disadvantage when it comes to consensus building especially when reaching out to Kenya’s variegated ethnic landscape. Kindiki has no known friends of note beyond his ethnic extraction. Unlike Ruto and Gachagua, he does not inspire the loyal following of friends who have known him from his nascent years. He is not unlike a Texan cattle rancher who is revealed to be all hat and no cattle. Further, any success that Gachagua has in the courts will kneecap Kindiki and call into question his legitimacy as DP.

Third is the election matrix of 2027. Former powerful Cabinet Secretary Fred Matiang’i has recently announced his intention to run for president in the next elections. Dr Matiang’i is loud and effective and has a proven track record as CS. Further, he has the backing of former president Uhuru Kenyatta the de facto leader of the populous vote-rich Kikuyu nation. Matiang’i’s entry makes Gachagua’s hold on the Kikuyu nation tenuous.

It is instructive that Gachagua has never gotten the endorsement of the Kenyattas. This is perhaps because he broke the “code of silence” within the ranks of the political elite with his “bare it all” assault against the current president. Former president Moi endured years of scorn as the founding father’s vice president but never had a bad word against Jomo Kenyatta. Mwai Kibaki, Josephat Karanja, George Saitoti and Musalia Mudavadi all had stints as VPs without deriding their bosses. Gachagua departed from script.

Fourth, Kalonzo Musyoka, leader of the Kamba nation, is now eclipsed by both Gachagua and Matiang’i. As long as it looked like Gachagua was out of contention for the presidency, Kalonzo appeared poised to reap from the windfall of the former’s backing. But now he is relegated to the same political position as Martha Karua and Eugene Wamalwa. They may be forced by circumstances to focus on individual agency rather than community interests.

Mr Khafafa is a public policy analyst