Post-Raila Nyanza: Is Kalonzo a natural heir or political tourist?

As the political shocks from the demise of ODM leader Raila Odinga continue to rock Nyanza more than two months after he was laid to rest, Wiper Patriotic Front leader Kalonzo Musyoka has joined the fray of those battling to inherit Raila’s political base.

Kalonzo has stepped up his efforts to crack the stubborn support base and has visited the region three times since Raila passed on, but questions abound whether his efforts will bear fruit as political temperatures continue to rise.

And in each visit, he has sought to display himself as the man capable of protecting Raila's legacy of advocating for democracy and fighting for communities that had been marginalised. During the event, Kalonzo sought to remind the region of how he stood with Raila through thick and thin.

"For several years, we suffered with Raila. Our votes were stolen, and at times we had to hide," he said, adding that he will expound more about his tight brotherhood with Raila.

"I will speak soon on my relationship with Raila. I must talk about it. Raila knows that he has left his brothers, who will defend his legacy," Kalonzo told Bondo residents last week during the burial of Raila's sister Beryl Achieng.

According to ODM insiders, however, Kalonzo’s long-term friendship with Raila and his support for the ODM chief in three General Elections have provided him with a soft landing in Nyanza.

“Kalonzo is welcome to campaign and woo Nyanza because he was our friend for a long time. However, he must accept that the region is backing the broad-based government,” says a senior ODM official.

According to the official, Kalonzo is also enjoying the backing of members of Raila’s family, but claims that the relationship only borders on his long-term friendship with the family and not on his own political ambitions.

The Sunday Standard has established that a section of ODM leaders has left the window open to working with Kalonzo in case their current deal with President Ruto falters. 

This, perhaps, explains the reason ODM stalwarts like Siaya Governor James Orengo have spoken positively about him in the recent past.

Unlike his competitor, President William Ruto, who is also harboring similar ambitions and has deployed his lieutenants to help build grassroots support, Kalonzo’s list of prominent allies is short.

A tough task also awaits the veteran politician as pro-Ruto forces from the region continue with decampaigning leaders who are not aligned with the broad-based government.

Last week, Energy Cabinet Secretary Opiyo Wandayi cautioned the region not to consider leaders he claimed had been running around the region to woo them, claiming that the region is firmly behind President Ruto.

"All these people who are running around, the only person who ever stood with Raila and gave him his vote is William Ruto," says Wandayi that Ruto is the one who enabled Raila to serve the country as a Prime Minister.

Political pundits are torn over whether his efforts will bear political fruit. While some claim he has chances of inheriting Raila's supporters, others believe his chances are slim, arguing that he betrayed Raila in 2007.

They also claim his lack of formidable allies to help him undertake grassroots mobilization in the region is a key plank that is missing in his strategy and could prove disastrous in the long run.

This is further complicated by his association with DCP leader Rigathi Gachagua, whose own past issues with Raila, as well as his campaign rhetoric, have become a huge campaign fodder for pro-Ruto allies to decampaign Kalonzo.

For instance, last week, Wandayi, who was speaking in South Gem, declared that there will only be two formations running for presidency in 2027-one led by President Ruto and another led by his former deputy Gachagua.

Constitutional lawyer Ndegwa Njiru opines that Kalonzo has a good chance in the Nyanza region.

‎He thinks that the Wiper leader's visit to the Nyanza region is not to court them but to continue the long relationship they have had for over 15 years.

‎"He is not trying to court them. These are his longtime political friends and associates. By going there, he is not attempting to court them. He is only visiting those people he has stood with for the last 15 years," lawyer Njiru says.

‎According to Njiru, most people from Nyanza are saying that since Raila died, Kalonzo has been left as their political father.

‎He believes that Kalonzo is perpetuating what he has always been doing with them.

‎"In my view, there is nothing I would regard as being called courting. When he went to Kang'o Kajaramogi, he went to mourn his long-term friend, his visit to Ugunja was to campaign for his candidate, and recently to Siaya to mourn the sister of his friend," Njiru opines.

‎Strategic and Political Communications Consultant Barack Muluka opines that Luo Nyanza is still in shock after the sudden demise of Raila Odinga.

‎"Nobody knows what will happen there after the shock," Dr. Muluka says.

Constitutional Lawyer Joshua Nyamori says that Kalonzo Musyoka’s repeated visits to Nyanza are, at best, political theatre.

‎"History shows a man who speaks of loyalty but practices calculation," Lawyer Nyamori says.

‎He opines that Kalonzo is not consistent and not dependable.

‎"Nyanza remembers 2007, when his indecision cost the nation dearly - lives lost, homes burned, dreams deferred. He has repeatedly returned to alliances not out of principle but convenience," Lawyer Nyamori says.

‎He thinks that the people of Nyanza, like all Kenyans who have survived betrayal, now seek courage, conviction, and leaders willing to leap for the people and not men who crouch, waiting for the winning side.

Communication expert Professor Charles Nyambuga opines that the Nyanza region is still stuck with the ODM party, and where the party leans will tilt the Nyanza vote.

‎"The last by-elections clearly showed the party loyalty in the region," Prof. Nyambuga says.

In that poll, despite Kalonzo's Wiper party fielding a candidate in Ugunja, their performance was subpar as ODM effortlessly clinched the seat through Moses Omondi.

Constitutional lawyer Clifford Obiero opines that electoral dominance in any region is not acquired through episodic visits bordering on political tourism.

"It is predicated on deliberate political engineering and demonstrable alignment with influential regional power brokers who possess the capacity to sway voter sentiment," Lawyer Obiero says.

‎‎According to lawyer Obiero, the fundamental question remains on which political heavyweights in Nyanza are unequivocally tethered to his political enterprise.

‎"In the absence of such alliances, these incursions amount to optics rather than any serious consolidation of electoral capital," Obiero says.

‎He thinks that Nyanza region has not expunged memories of his conduct during the 2007 electoral crisis, a moment when Raila Odinga’s ascendancy appeared inevitable.

‎‎Obiero says Kalonzo's subsequent withdrawal, the resultant vote fragmentation, and his swift elevation to the Vice Presidency were widely perceived as a premeditated act of political duplicity, cementing the “watermelon” epithet.