Ruto and Raila efforts to pacify Nyanza on course, but questions looms

A wave of political change is sweeping through Nyanza, reshaping the region’s political dynamics and reuniting old foes into one political camp as the region’s dalliance with President William Ruto continues to deepen.

It is a political realignment that has pacified Nyanza, calmed the long-teething problem of sibling rivalries, silenced ODM leader Raila Odinga’s critics from his backyard, and ushered in multibillion government projects to the region.

For the first time in several years, nearly all leaders from the region, including those who fell out with Raila and ODM in the past, have found themselves in the same camp, praising a government that some of them loathed about a year ago.

This is happening as the Saturday Standard established that President Ruto and the ODM chief are assembling a powerful political machinery with implications on the 2027 General Elections.

According to sources within ODM, the ultimate goal is to work with Ruto beyond 2027 and anchor his reelection campaign strategy on a similar strategy that almost brought Raila to presidential power in 2007.

At the time, Ruto managed to consolidate support for the ODM leader in Rift Valley while Raila also seamlessly held fort of Nyanza with an iron grip to give the country’s third president, Mwai Kibaki, a run for his money.

It is a machinery that has seen even the hardest of the hardliners and Raila’s long-term think tanks, Siaya Governor James Orengo and his Kisumu counterpart Anyang Nyong'o coil their tails to throw their weight behind the union between the two leaders.

On Thursday, Orengo led a delegation of leaders from Siaya to meet Ruto at State House as he changed his earlier stand that development is not a gift to lobby for from the government but a right.

A day before his visit, Governor Nyong'o, who had also made statements criticising the Kenya Kwanza government a few months ago, issued a statement backing Ruto's plans for the country.

"We wholeheartedly support the decision the decision by President Ruto and Raila to work together in the interest of national unity and development," said Nyong'o.

In the region, only Embakasi East MP Babu Owino remains the formidable leader opposed to the new working arrangement and equates Ruto's leadership as a failure already happening.

Yet amid the political merry and cherry over the new union among Raila and Ruto's allies, there are hints about challenges that the duo must overcome. 

While they have managed to bring almost all the leaders to their fold, it remains to be seen if residents are all backing the move and if the strategy of infrastructural goodies to the region will win more hearts.

In Kisumu, for instance, a section of residents have questioned plans to construct affordable housing in Korando area and have vowed to halt the process through courts. Similarly, a section of residents have also described Ruto's gifts of affordable housing as misplaced priorities.

"It is just politics. They are busy constructing affordable housing in a region that does not have functional industries. They are only solving their political problems, but not the economic problems of the region," said Moses Ochieng, a resident of Kisumu.

But despite the pockets of concerns, Raila and Ruto's political lieutenants from the region are trudging on with belief and rallying the region to join their course.

Interviews with several observers and ODM insiders established that the union has created a force that will have deep implications on the region’s politics and strengthen Raila’s position in the region.

Constitutional lawyer and political pundit Joshua Nyamori says the Ruto-Raila thaw has created a rare win-win situation whereby it honors Raila’s legacy, expands Ruto’s reach, and opens new doors for Luo Nyanza’s social and economic advancement.

"His ability to engage constructively with Ruto—despite their fierce political rivalry—demonstrates a commitment to national unity and regional development. Raila’s bid for the African Union Commission Chairperson, backed by Ruto’s government, has repositioned him on the continental stage, while still retaining his grassroots loyalty at home," the lawyer says.

In the last few weeks, leaders from the region who were the first to jump into Ruto's boat after the 2022 General Elections have been singing the same tune as Raila's allies.

They include those who had publicly vowed not to associate with Raila again and had claimed that ODM shortchanged them in party primaries ahead of the 2022 General Elections.

Some of them were appointed by Ruto to plum government positions and were the focal point in Ruto's strategy to win over Nyanza ahead of the 2027 General Elections until Raila joined the fray and became the captain.

But it has been a cocktail of strategies by Ruto. Firstly, he has toured the region more than six times since he was elected, spending between three to five days to rally support for his administration.

He also deployed his allies, led by Interior PS Raymond Omollo and former ICT CS Eliud Owalo, to lead grassroots mobilisation in the region. 

While the duo is still implementing the strategy, the inclusion of Raila and his troops appears to have bolstered Ruto's exploits in the region as political realignments continue.

Observers believe Raila's decision to work with Ruto has strengthened his own profile in Nyanza and allowed him to reclaim support from a section of leaders who were opposing him in favor of Ruto.

They claim Ruto’s allies in the region, who were the first to jump ship and join Kenya Kwanza before Raila and his brigade, cannot dare question Raila.

“Raila’s stake in Ruto’s government means that he is more important to Ruto than any other leader from the region. He can influence the removal of any of his critics appointed by the president, and that is part of the reason Nyanza is now a united force,” says an ODM MP.

Observers are torn over the developments. While some claim Raila could be slowly handing over the Nyanza voting bloc to Ruto, others believe their latest move has created confusion in the region.

Strategic and Political Communications Consultant Dr. Barack Muluka opines that it has generated confusion and sends a signal that Raila has surrendered his presidential ambitions to support Ruto.

He also believes that there are others who are convinced he is just fooling Ruto and will bounce back after he has successfully managed to clear doubts from his backyard.

"Those who think he has surrendered are even more confused. They don’t know whether to follow him or to wait for a new leader for the region," Dr. Muluka says.

Political analyst Mark Bichachi opines that President Ruto's dalliance with Raila has resulted in Ruto getting the backing of most of the people in Luo Nyanza.

He believes the multiple projects Ruto has dedicated to Nyanza won him significant support from the region.

"The Luo nation, having lived in opposition politics for long stretches of time, feels that they need to be part of government and to enjoy the perks of it as they imagine it," Mr. Bichachi says.

He believes Raila’s backing of Ruto has yielded fruit for Ruto, thus giving the 2027 Ruto campaign a boost.

Constitutional lawyer Clifford Obiero opines that President Ruto’s political courtship with Raila Odinga has stirred quiet tremors in Nyanza, a region long considered the heartland of Raila's loyal base.

"Once a bastion of unwavering opposition, the handshake of convenience between the two has softened old battle lines," Lawyer Obiero says.

A section of ODM leaders from the region, however, claim the realignments are more dedicated towards development than politics.

Rongo MP Paul Abuor says the cooperation between President Ruto and Raila has made Luo Nyanza people and their leaders focus more on the development of their region than politics in a manner that has never happened before.

"Politicking will begin towards the end of next year, 2026, and the direction it takes will depend on the signal Raila will give," Mr. Abuor says.

Additional reporting by Anne Atieno