Why El Nino may return this year
National
By
AFP
| Mar 04, 2026
Residents of Rhonda in Nakuru city on top of the roofs after their houses flooded following an heavenly down pour on May 3,2020. [File, Standard]
El Nino weather phenomenon could return later this year as its cooling opposite La Nina fades away, the United Nations said Tuesday.
The UN’s World Meteorological Organisation (WMO) said the recent, weak La Nina was expected to give way to neutral conditions, which could then swing into El Nino before the end of 2026.
La Nina is a naturally occurring climate phenomenon that cools surface temperatures in the central and eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean. It brings changes in winds, pressure and rainfall patterns. The WMO said there was a 60-per cent chance of neutral conditions during the three-month window from March to May, with a 30 per cent chance of La Nina conditions, and El Nino at a 10 per cent probability.
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There is a 70-percent chance of neutral conditions during April-June.
In May-July, the chance of neutral conditions drops back to 60 per cent, with the chances of El Nino at 40 per cent.
“The WMO community will be carefully monitoring conditions in the coming months to inform decision-making,” said Celeste Saulo, who heads the UN’s weather and climate agency.
“The most recent El Nino, in 2023-24, was one of the five strongest on record and it played a role in the record global temperatures we saw in 2024,” the WMO secretary-general said.
El Nino contributed to making 2023 the second-hottest year on record and 2024 the all-time high.
Above-average temperatures
The WMO underlined that naturally occurring climate events such as La Nina and El Nino take place against the backdrop of human-induced climate change, which is “increasing global temperatures in the long-term, exacerbating extreme weather and climate events, and impacting seasonal rainfall and temperature patterns”.
The US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration says there is a 50 to 60 per cent chance of El Nino developing during the July-September period and beyond.
“Seasonal forecasts for El Nino and La Nina help us avert millions of dollars in economic losses and are essential planning tools for climate-sensitive sectors like agriculture, health, energy and water management,” said Saulo.
“They are also a key part of the climate intelligence provided by WMO to support humanitarian operations and disaster risk management, and thus save lives,” she said.
The WMO’s latest Global Seasonal Climate update says there is a widespread global signal for above-average land surface temperatures for March to May.
Rainfall predictions in the equatorial Pacific show a lingering La Nina-like pattern, but in other parts of the world, the signal is more mixed, it says.
Meanwhile, industry ministers from 10 European Union countries, including Germany and France on Wednesday called for a reform of the bloc’s flagship carbon market scheme to enable a “more competitive Europe”. “Decarbonisation should not be achieved by deindustrialisation” and “emission reduction in industry should be achieved as cost-efficiently as possible”, the ministers said in a joint statement shared by the German economy ministry.
Dating back to 2005, the EU Emissions Trading System (ETS) is the European Union’s flagship climate policy and the world’s first large‑scale carbon market.
It is designed to reduce greenhouse gas emissions cost‑effectively by putting a cap on total emissions and allowing companies to trade allowances within that cap. The European Commission is due to present proposals for reforming the ETS in 2026.
The industry ministers of Austria, the Czech Republic, France, Germany, Italy, Luxembourg, Poland, Portugal, Slovakia and Spain signed the statement. The ministers said the current system exposes manufacturers to “the risk of high price levels, increased market volatility and limited liquidity”.
They called for an ETS revision that “enhances EU competitiveness by ensuring an effective price signal, predictability, market stability and protection against excessive price volatility”.