Mbadi: We can't gauge drought's economic toll yet

Despite the worsening drought that has exposed more than 3 million Kenyans to vulnerabilities, the government says it is yet to determine the projected economic impact clearly.

As Kenya grapples with the drought, Treasury Cabinet Secretary John Mbadi has outlined the government's robust response, committing billions in emergency funds while warning of potential economic disruptions if rains fail to materialize as hoped.

If not addressed, the drought situation could disrupt agriculture/GDP if it hits productive areas, but current projection holds GDP growth at 5.3 per cent in 2026 assuming normal rains. “The effect this will have on the economy is yet to be determined,” Mbadi.

This comes at the back of heavy scrutiny from critics, who have faulted the government, noting the disbursed funds are not adequate for drought response.

According to former deputy president, Rigathi Gachagua, the Sh4.1 monthly expenditure approved Tuesday by cabinet to deal with the drought situation in close to half of the counties in the country is below the UN-approved standards to help the 3.3 million Kenyans who are starving.

“This translates to approximately Sh173 million per county allocated to 3.3 million Kenyans who are affected. This translates to Sh1,200 per person. These funds are way below the minimum food basket recommended by the United Nations to approximately Sh2,700 per person in the rural areas,” DCP party leader Rigathi Gathagua said, asking president William Ruto, to declare the drought in Northern Kenya a national disaster.

Treasury Cabinet Secretary John Mbadi has revealed that  the drought's impact has intensified dramatically in recent weeks.

Kenya is facing a severe and rapidly deteriorating drought crisis, with conditions worsening significantly since January 2026 due to the failure of the October-December 2025 short rains.

Official reports indicate that millions of Kenyans are currently in acute food insecurity across up to 23 counties, with 10-12 in alert or alarm phases, including Mandera, Wajir, Kwale, and Kilifi.

This has led to widespread livestock deaths, rising acute malnutrition, water shortages, crop failures, and heightened risks of disease outbreaks and resource-based conflicts in pastoral communities.

This, while President William Ruto takes on a three-day tour in parts of Northern Kenya to roll out the Nyota Fund.

"A few weeks ago, about a month ago, the assessment by the government ministries was that about 2.1 million Kenyans were exposed in ASAL regions. Now, the number of counties has reached about 11 and the number of Kenyans who are now exposed is about 3.3 million,” Treasury CS John Mbadi.

Following a request from the State Department for Special Programs, Mbadi says the government has allocated a total of Sh9.5 billion. This includes an initial Sh3 billion out of a requested Sh6 billion, followed by Sh2.5 billion in November, and Sh3.5 billion in December.

The national treasury has also reported that Sh3 billion has been directed toward human food support and Sh500 million for livestock feed to prevent mass animal deaths.

Additionally, Mbadi noted a separate Sh54 million expenditure on the Elgeyo Marakwet disaster, bringing the cumulative aid to approximately Sh9.05 billion before the latest approvals.

The CS further notes that the government is likely to approve an additional Sh4 billion for drought response.

According to John Mbadi, the Sh9.5 billion that has been disbursed so far is enough to sustain the drought-hit counties and populations throughout February.

According to the weatherman, normal to above-normal rainfall is expected in western Kenya, the Lake Victoria region, parts of the Rift Valley, and highlands east of the Rift.

However, below-normal conditions may persist in coastal and north-eastern areas, potentially prolonging the drought in those zones.

Mbadi has underscored agriculture's pivotal role in Kenya's GDP. "If the drought affects the agricultural and productive areas, then certainly it will disorganize our agricultural sector, which is our main economic sector in terms of support to our GDP," he warned.

Despite this, the government maintains its projection of 5.3 per cent GDP growth for 2026, assuming rains arrive normally in April without causing floods.

Mbadi has advocated for a paradigm shift in agricultural practices. "As a government, we are saying we cannot continue to rely on rain-fed agriculture, and to survive by grace of the generosity of the weather”.

"We must now think big and think on how to harness water when there is a lot of water. We must now channel that to our infrastructure projects, especially underwater irrigation,” Mbadi said.

The drought being experienced by most parts of the country has been exacerbated by a four-year dry spell following COVID-19 shocks, highlighting Kenya's vulnerability to climate variability.

With a population nearing 60 million, the drought engulfing almost half of the country signals the urgency of sustainable solutions amid ongoing humanitarian needs.