Likely losers: Mini-polls serve as litmus test for top power brokers

The ongoing, hotly contested by-election campaigns across Kenya are increasingly testing the political lifeline and survival of prominent figures within both the broad-based government and the United Opposition.

The mini-polls, to be conducted across the country on November 27, have shifted focus from individual candidates to established leaders striving to assert their authority and remain relevant ahead of the 2027 General Election.

In constituencies where the government has fielded candidates, state machinery has been deployed to capture crucial seats that could shape the 2027 polls. Conversely, the United Opposition has mounted a spirited challenge, determined to realise its goal of defeating President William Ruto in 2027.

In the Western region, by-elections in Malava Constituency and Chwele and Kabuchai Ward in Kakamega and Bungoma Counties serve as a litmus test for Prime Cabinet Secretary Musalia Mudavadi, National Assembly Speaker Moses Wetangula, and Co-operative Cabinet Secretary Wycliffe Oparanya.

They are expected to deliver these seats for President Ruto and secure their positions ahead of the 2027 political realignment. Failure would see them as likely losers, politically marginalised both locally and nationally.

Candidate battle

The government is backing UDA candidate David Ndakwa in Malava, while the United Opposition supports DAP-K candidate Seth Panyako.

Victory would consolidate Mudavadi, Wetangula, and Oparanya as regional kingpins, increasing their influence and bargaining power nationally.

Addressing the media in Kakamega, Mudavadi downplayed claims that the Malava by-election was a test of his political career. “We have people who want to tie the by-election to my career, but that is street talk. I have won and lost elections before; it does not worry me,” he said.

Nonetheless, he acknowledged the mini-poll as a serious test of the government’s popularity in the region.

Observers argue that the results could either make or break Mudavadi and Wetangula’s influence within Ruto’s inner political circle.

Political analyst Dr Barrack Muluka contends that Mudavadi risks being the biggest local loser, while Ruto could face a national setback if the seat is lost.

“Mudavadi is likely the biggest loser locally and Ruto nationally. A defeat would reduce Mudavadi’s clout in government and the region, forcing Ruto to reconsider engagement with Western Kenya. Conversely, a win would strengthen their position as key decision-makers and boost confidence among constituents,” Muluka explained.

Muluka further noted that Wetangula’s control over Bungoma and Trans Nzoia Counties is tenuous, citing reports of intimidation and defiance among MPs in these areas.

Opposition momentum

For the United Opposition, leaders such as Trans Nzoia Governor George Natembeya, DAP-K leader Eugene Wamalwa, and Kakamega Senator Boni Khalwale are striving to establish political footholds in the Western region. Failure would weaken their bargaining power nationally.

Analysts argue that the United Opposition must win by-election seats in Western Kenya to maintain momentum and assert itself as a credible alternative voice. “If Natembeya and his team cannot secure victories, it will demonstrate a lack of followership, weakening their bargaining power nationally,” political analyst Martin Andati said.

He added that a United Opposition win would force leaders outside the region, including Ruto, to engage on new terms, diminishing the relevance of Mudavadi, Wetangula, and Oparanya.

In Nyanza, the death of ODM leader Raila Odinga has created a power vacuum, with Orange leaders led by Homa Bay Governor Gladys Wanga striving to maintain the party’s dominance in the upcoming by-elections. Internal rifts within ODM, alongside emerging opposition movements, have put the political futures of Governor Wanga, ODM Chairperson Oburu Oginga, and other senior officials under scrutiny.

Wanga has taken charge of the Kasipul and Ugunja by-elections in Homa Bay and Siaya Counties. In Kasipul, she backs Boyd Were, though a falling out with her deputy, Oyugi Magwanga, who supports independent candidate Philip Aroko, threatens ODM’s chances of securing the seat.

Political pundits argue that Wanga could be the most significant casualty if the party loses either by-election, as she is positioning herself as the senior-most leader in Nyanza and a potential running mate for Ruto in 2027.

“ODM must exercise caution in Kasipul, as opposition support is growing quietly. Wanga’s ambition to become Ruto’s running mate is a high-stakes gamble that may not yield the desired results,” said Dr Muluka.

He added that Wanga’s actions are motivated more by personal political ambition than by the interests of Nyanza or ODM.

Andati argued that Oburu is under pressure to deliver victories to restore confidence in his leadership.

“Oburu must ensure ODM wins all the by-elections to remove the perception that only the late Raila could steer the party. His absence in Dubai during the campaigns has been a misstep. He should be actively canvassing across the Coastal and Nyanza regions,” Andati said.

If ODM loses the by-elections, Wanga, Oburu, and other party leaders allied with the broad-based government will have diminished influence on national matters. “You cannot negotiate for national influence if you cannot secure your backyard. A loss reduces their bargaining power with Ruto and allied leaders in coalition talks,” Andati noted.

Coastal contest

Similarly, Kilifi’s Magarini parliamentary by-election pits ODM’s Harrison Kombe against DCP candidate Stanley Kega, providing a key test for Governor Gedion Mungaro and Senate Speaker Amason Kingi in controlling the Coastal region.

Conversely, a Gachagua victory would help dispel the perception that he is a tribal leader and that DCP is only a Mount Kenya party.

In Mbeere North, the by-election has become a high-profile contest, with UDA heavyweights Deputy President Kithure Kindiki and Public Service Cabinet Secretary Geoffrey Ruku under pressure to deliver the seat. Their success is crucial to consolidating Ruto’s influence in a region now dominated by ex-Deputy President Gachagua.