Mercurial Agwambo's moves that left friend and foe baffled

Between his omniscience and restlessness resided Raila Odinga’s destiny. It defined his often brief and fleeting political partnerships that have been characterised with elements of dominance and political duplicity.

The post-1997 cooperation between Raila and President Moi, for example, matured into a full fledged merger of NDP and Kanu. It saw Raila get the reward of a Cabinet position in the Moi Government as well as the Secretary General position in the party.

Yet, when Moi preferred Uhuru Kenyatta as his successor, Raila led a detachment of politicians out of Kanu into the little known LDP. Unbeknown to his colleagues in LDP, he signed a cooperation pact with Simeon Nyachae of Ford People. They would agree who between the two of them should be the presidential candidate and how to work together in government.

Little did Nyachae know, when signing this pact on October 14, 2002, that Raila had already concluded another deal with Mwai Kibaki. Raila got himself out of the tight double-spot by declaring at a rally in Uhuru Park, the very same day, that Kibaki was the best candidate.

The expected solid relationship between Raila and Kibaki was short lived, however. Within the first month of forming government, Kibaki had to reckon with his demand for better office. He held the Roads portfolio in Cabinet. But this was not enough, he said. He wanted to be made a Prime Minister.

Cabinet meetings became difficult, with his dominant voice. Conversation about a new constitution could not move forward. In the end, Kibaki had to secure his Cabinet when, on June 1, 2004, he brought Nyachae and his team into Government.

In the subsequent Constitutional referendum in November, 2005, Raila got an opportunity to fashion a new team that included Uhuru, Kalonzo Musyoka, Musalia Mudavadi, William Ruto, Omingo Magara, Joe Nyagah, Najib Balala, and a host of other notables from across the country. They went on to work under the Orange Democratic Movement (ODM) towards the botched 2007 elections, with the exception of Uhuru, who decamped in 2006 to join Kibaki. Kalonzo also left a few weeks to the poll. 

By August 2012, Raila was alone. Each one of his former partners had dropped him, one after the other, all citing “dictatorship”. Some of the separations were exceptionally acrimonious, especially with Ruto, who now faced war crime charges before the International Criminal court. Raila publicly asked Ruto to “carry your own cross”. Conspiracy of political circumstances would however force Kalonzo back as his running mate.

It is instructive that while they are said to have signed a pact that Raila would support Kalonzo for president in 2017, he did not honour this pact, arguing that he had not become the President and so the pact could not be followed through. He ran again in 2017, this time also with the support of Mudavadi, who had come back to him owing to both public pressure and common sense that divided, they stood no chance against the well oiled incumbent Jubilee political machine of Uhuru and Ruto. The perception that a different ticket stood a better chance was widespread. Raila, however, insisted on running.

Strange things happened thereafter. The truth will probably be ascertained in the fullness of time. There is cause to believe that Raila decided to pull out of the repeat Presidential election of October 26 without ample consultation with his NASA co-principals – Kalonzo, Mudavadi and Bungoma Senator Moses Wetang’ula. It has also been said that after his colleagues had agreed to accompany him to Uhuru Park on January 30, 2018, to explain to Kenyans why he was not going to be sworn in, in an extra legal function, he duped them and turned up alone, to swear himself in at a scrambled function.

Cries of betrayal against his colleagues soon began suffocating the air, much to Raila’s delight. As debate raged, the country heard that he had been having a secret conversation with Uhuru and that they would work together “to unite Kenyans and to conduct a national dialogue”.  

A few days later, Raila dissolved the People’s Assemblies that NASA had formed beginning October 25 under the aegis of the controversial National Resistance movement, whose self-proclaimed General, Miguna Miguna, was deported to Canada under mysterious circumstances.

It is instructive that Raila lacked his trademark passion in addressing the extradition. Miguna himself accused Raila of “cowardice” and “betrayal of the people”. Dissolution of the People’s Assemblies was once again done behind his co-principal’s backs. From that moment on, Miguna never had a kind word for Raila. 

Raila’s battalion in the Senate dethroned Wetang’ula from the position of Leader of Minority, again with little enthusiasm on his part to save Wetang’ula.

Some circles believed that Raila muddied NASA waters so as to destroy the coalition and free himself from a contractual encumbrance that could bar him from running for President in 2022, if the coalition should still be existing. Equally, the agreement barred his ODM party from presenting a presidential candidate. 

NASA died a quiet death. He cozied up with President Uhuru, who led him to the 2022 presidential election that he narrowly lost to Ruto.

Master of political metamorphosis, Agwambo the mercurial one has made the final bow in unfamiliar territory. Whatever you make of him, Kenya will be asking with William Shakespeare, where does such another come from?