How Gen Z have stolen 'maandamano' thunder from Raila

For decades, one name was at the core of almost every street protest.

Raila Odinga, fondly referred to by his supporters as Baba, has been the undisputed face of resistance. His calls for mass action would grind cities to a halt, his rallies were national events, and his name was synonymous with dissent.

The former Prime Minister influenced Kenya's protest culture from the acrimonious fight for multiparty democracy in the 1990s to the ferocious protests over contested elections. His impact transcended social and ethnic barriers, transforming him from a mere politician into a living embodiment of defiance.

His strategy was simple: organise the populace, cripple the economy, compel the government to engage, and negotiate a power-sharing agreement. He could often have his way to power, leaving his supporters on the sidelines.

But that seems to have changed.

And it has everything to do with the ODM leader’s association with President William Ruto, according to Gideon Kibet, more famous as Kibet Bull, a Generation Z mobiliser who was abducted for sharing silhouettes perceived to be demeaning Dr Ruto.

“No one ever expected him to work with Ruto, given how he would call Ruto out. Kenyans are now clever. You can’t use them to fulfil your needs,” he says.

A dispersed generation that regards itself fearless and leaderless has supplanted the monopoly Raila once had over the streets and the opposition. With smartphones and social media at their disposal, this generation of young people has demonstrated that a political kingpin is no longer necessary for resistance. 

The obvious indication occurred last week. On the first anniversary of the historic June 25, 2024, storming of Parliament, young people mobilised themselves through the social media. T hey had no leader, n o focal point, and no political ties.

Under the #SiriNiNumbers, what started as online indignation swiftly spread to the streets. There were no banners from any political parties. No politician took the lead. But what happened were organised, extensive, and fierce protests driven solely by the youthfulness energy and digital networks.

Young Kenyans mobilised in 27 counties. Roads were blocked. Towns and offices closed. 

Scared of the "Occupy State House" calls, President Ruto's residence was put under heavy surveillance, complete with razor wire roadblocks. So was the Parliament.

State's response was brutal. In a protest called to honour about 60 young people killed in last year demos, at least 19 people were killed in one day from police bullets. 

Unlike last year, this was a protest against a political culture characterised by deceit and unfulfilled promises amid corruption and a worsening economy.

The same young people who used to chant Raila's name now publicly disavow him, seeing his alliances and handshakes as betrayals. 

"The opposition has taken a shape of its own," says Saboti MP Caleb Amisi, a Raila ally. "No one has monopoly over the opposition and whoever steps in to claim it will have an advantage."

There is no doubt that the government has been taken aback. It has grown accustomed to dealing with organised political opposition, but now it must contend with an elusive, unafraid force that cannot be subdued by political promises or called into boardrooms.

Should the young be wary?

“These young people must understand that Kenya is for all generations. All these politicians occupy space and control some sections of the population,” says Suba Churchill, the executive director of the Kenya National Civil Society Centre. He argues that the movement must adopt an “intergenerational” approach.

But Kibet does not believe the traditional political class has anything to offer the young movement, as its members have contributed to the rot.

There is a clear difference from Raila's time, when he negotiated a handshake with the very leaders he had demonised, which has become Raila's formula. Following the deadly post-election violence in 2007–2008, this script came to pass, leading to a power-sharing agreement that elevated him to prime minister.

It happened again in 2018 when he abruptly left a ferocious resistance movement without informing his supporters and shocked the country by shaking hands with President Uhuru Kenyatta.

 The script was re-enacted last year, when the former premier partnered with President William Ruto and muted, for months, the youth-led uprising that convulsed the country. For many, that action, which saw Raila reap five slots in Ruto’s Cabinet, was the ultimate betrayal. It made it clear that the old guard's protest politics were now more about their survival than they were about the people.

In many ways, the previous era has witnessed a personality-driven resistance. Kenya’s Constitution, promulgated in 2010, aimed to cure that by strengthening the independence of Parliament and other oversight institutions. The legislature has since ceded its independence to the Executive, which essentially remote-controls them.

“The so-called opposition people who have claimed to be opposition for the longest time are not speaking about the issues that Kenyans want to hear,” lawyer Ekuru Aukot, who participated in writing Kenya’s Constitution, said in a recent interview on Spice FM. “So the only opposition today in Kenya is the people of Kenya.”

Indeed, a new generation that is fiercely independent, decentralised, and proficient in digital technology has replaced the old order. Because they rely solely on themselves, this generation has no faith in politicians, no desire for handshakes, and no fear of betrayal.

“The Raila we know today is not the one we know historically,” said Machakos Deputy Governor Francis Mwangangi. “Raila previously stood with Kenyans, but he is now defending a corrupt government. Has moved from being a defender of the people to a defender of governments.”

Mwangangi said Raila’s inconsistencies have led the masses to “move on” from him, making the youth-led protests “more successful.”

“Even his allies are moving on, and that is why they did not go with him to the bread-based government,” he said. “I don’t think he can redeem himself because age is catching up with him. I also don’t see his allies leaving the Executive to go back to the opposition.”