El Nino puts 1.5m Kenyans at risk of humanitarian, economic shocks

Kenya is bracing for a potentially unprecedented El Nino, with the latest forecast warning that the country could face the strongest event ever measured.

According to the weather forecast, the rains could break existing records by dangerous margins raising fears of widespread destructive floods.

The Kenya Meteorological Services Authority has warned that 43 out of 47 counties will receive above normal rainfall with a possibility of devastating floods.

Globally and in Kenya, the 2026-27 El Nino is likely to be the most powerful in recent history with warnings of triggering far-reaching humanitarian and economic shocks.

“The science is clear: El Niño is arriving on our doorstep in the coming months with 90 percent certainty.  The world must treat it as the urgent climate warning it is,” the World Meteorological Organisation (WMO) warned.

The 1982-83, 1997-98 and 2015-16 events disrupted weather patterns around the world, bringing devastating floods to parts of the Americas and East Africa while fueling droughts, wildfires and crop losses in Australia, Southeast Asia and southern Africa.

Those experiences are again in focus as scientists monitor what could become an exceptionally strong El Niño in 2026-27 potentially causing extensive damage, tens of thousands of deaths, displacement of millions of people globally and major disruptions of food production, education, public health, transport and economies.

Although scientists have warned that an exceptionally strong El Niño does not necessarily translate into equally severe impacts everywhere, the United Nations has warned that a severe 2026-27 El Niño could leave at least 49 million additional people facing acute food insecurity, emphasizing the global stakes as countries prepare for the coming climate shock.

Here in Kenya, at last 1.5 million are expected to be severely affected with the National Disaster Operations Centre (NDOC) warning that current risk assessment indicate that more than 500, 000 could be displaced by flooding and a further 450, 000 people could be exposed to mudslides, rock-falls and landslides particularly in areas prone to steep terrain and soil instability.

Kenya has been listed as one of the 22 high-risk priority countries across Africa by the United Nations Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) and the World Food Programme (WFP) in their joint Sh26.1 billion anticipatory action appeal to protect vulnerable populations from extreme weather events.

The other countries identified are Cameroon, Ethiopia, Madagascar, Malawi, Mozambique, Nigeria, Somalia, South Sudan, Uganda and Zimbabwe with about 8.8 million vulnerable people targeted for support.

The counties that are expected to receive rains above normal include Baringo, Bomet, Bungoma, Busia, Elgeyo Marakwet, Embu, Garissa, Homa Bay, Isiolo, Kajiado, Kakamega, Kericho, Kiambu, Kilifi, Kirinyaga, Kisii, Kisumu, Kitui, Kwale, Laikipia, Lamu, Machakos, Makueni, Mandera, Meru, Migori, Mombasa, Murang’a, Nairobi, Nakuru, Nandi, Narok, Nyamira, Nyandarua, Nyeri, Siaya, Taita/Taveta, Tana River, Tharaka-Nithi, Trans Nzoia, Uasin Gishu, Vihiga, Wajir, and much of West Pokot, Samburu and Marsabit Counties.

“With the prediction of a 99 per cent chance of El Nino and 96 per cent chance of a stronger El Nino, we are preparing for the worst case scenario. There’s no harm in getting prepared. I would rather we get prepared than we are found flatfooted,” said National Disaster Operations Centre Director David Samoei.

“As a disaster officer, I'm not just preparing for October-November-December (OND) as just El Nino, I’m preparing for super El Nino because the entire country will be flooded,” Samoei asserted.

According to Samoei, counties are expected to set aside land with properly equipped facilities and with access roads that will be used as Internally Displaced Persons(IDPs) camps.

“We are working with special programs and they’re now in the process of procuring relief food for them and Non-food items. I have confidence that this time we are really more prepared than before,” Samoei asserted, adding that the multi-agency team tasked with disaster preparedness, led by the deputy president Professor Kithure Kindki started the plans on March 8 after KMSA predictions.

“But disaster is a disaster. You may prepare this site, and that's something else, crops up, but we also are planning for any eventuality. We want to ensure that no Kenyan is going to die because of floods,” he added.

WFP and FAO stated that the forecast comes at a time when millions of people are already facing acute food insecurity driven by conflict, economic instability, displacement, recurrent weather-related shocks, and economic disruptions linked to the ongoing conflict in the Middle East.

“El Niño is forecasted to strengthen during the period covered by the outlook and this can disrupt planting, growing seasons, harvests, pasture, and water availability,” said the two organisations in a joint statement.

Strong El Niño conditions in the second half of 2026 are predicted to increase the likelihood of drought, floods and storms across parts of Africa, Asia, the Pacific, and Latin America and the Caribbean.

"Experience consistently shows that early action is more effective and less costly than responding after a crisis has escalated. We have the data, the tools and the evidence to identify risks before they become emergencies,” said FAO Deputy Director-General Beth Bechdol.

WFP Acting Executive Director Carl Skau said, “We cannot afford the fallout of another food crisis. With El Niño on the horizon, we have a narrow window to act so families are not forced into impossible choices later. We now have the tools to anticipate these events, what matters is how we act with that knowledge. Early action keeps food on the table and protects those at most risk. With the right resources, we can act faster, reduce costs, and reach people before the crisis escalates.” 

Speaking during the Nation Climate Outlook Forum when the OND Season forecast was officially released in Nairobi, representatives from various ministries listed the positive and negative impacts projected during the season, with the agriculture and livestock sector expected to be the most hit.

There are about 14 countries that practice rain-fed agriculture

Experts in the agriculture sector noted that the OND season will enhance extended growing seasons, overlaps of cropping and multiple harvests, sufficient moisture levels and generally enhancing agricultural performance due to robust agricultural activities.

This is expected to temporarily boost communities' income and reduce inflation, improve food and nutritional security due to the diverse crop produce.  It also anticipated that there will be abundant production of food and livestock feeds.

However, in the event the rains are excessive, farmers are expected to incur massive losses occasioned by flooding and displacement, landslides, waterlogging, soil erosion and leaching of nutrients, pest and disease escalation

High humidity in the atmosphere will also cause spoilage, rotting and contamination, leading to pre- and post-harvest losses.

In the livestock sub-sector, there is an expectation of forage regeneration, availability of water for livestock, improved animal body conditions, improved productivity and production of livestock products such as milk, dairy and oats.

In areas that will not be adversely affected by floods, it’s expected that there will be reduced migration of pastoral communities in search of scarce resources, such as water and pasture. Reduced conflict between human and wildlife is likely to occur.

The rangelands are also expected to recover and recharging of water sources.

The areas that will experience above normal rainfall, the sector predicts increased incidences of livestock pests, especially foot and mouth disease and rift valley fever.

Flooding is likely to cause displacement of animals, proliferation of invasive species, such as Prosposis pluriflorum, popularly known as General Mathenge.

To mitigate the impacts, the Ministry of Agriculture and Land Development announced ongoing plans to sensitize communities on pre- and post-harvest pest practices, promote essential infrastructure.

The Ministry announced that already, some counties have invested in grain dryers because of the high moisture, cooling and storage facilities and promotion of value-based agro-processing through industrial parks or agro-marketing hubs.

“There will be high surveillance to monitor pests and diseases in crops and livestock in the counties. We shall also engage in a marketing strategy focusing on value addition, so that surpluses of feed, fodder and food can be conserved,” said the ministry’s representative.

“Farmers are encouraged to plant early and use low maturation and high yielding maize that will go along with the extended rain periods,” he added noting that climate smart technologies will be utilized and mobilisation of field extension officers.

Other mitigation measures include rehabilitation of water resources, livestock vaccination, disease surveillance and livestock insurance as many livestock may lose high value in some of the areas.

While the water sector expects recharge of aquifers and other water resources, they expected negative impacts including increased marine polluting, damage to water and sanitation infrastructures hence disruption of water services.

The ministry also expressed concerns of dams bursts, accelerated high lake water levels.

Already, the country is facing a unique phenomenon of rising lakes in the Rift Valley and Lake Victoria basin. The lakes raising concerns include Nakuru, Bogoria, Baringo and Naivasha.

Lakes Baringo and Bogoria are particularly a major concern of El Niño because their rapidly swelling waters threaten a rare and destructive merger that could trigger a severe ecological and humanitarian crisis.

Lake Baringo is mostly fresh water, while Lake Bogoria is salty and alkaline and if they merge due to overflow, the chemical mix could kill specialized plants and animals, ruin local drinking water, and destroy fragile habitats.

Experts are also worried of loss of wildlife including flamingos, displacement of more people and increased animal attacks in human settlements.

“In 2020-2021, the distance separation between the two lakes was around 15 kilometres. As we speak, we are talking about less than nine kilometres separation between the two lakes, and only less than a metre before the next tip and meeting,” Principal Secretary for Environment Dr Festus Ngenoh said during the forecast release.

Baringo governor Benjamin Cheboi, said that the rising water lakes have affected more than 30 schools, six health facilities, and over 60 kilometers of road network.

The National Disaster Operations Center in collaboration with roads agencies including KENHA, KURRA and KERRA identified the major roads that are expected to cut off including Nairobi–Garissa–Wajir–Mandera Highway, Garissa–Tana River–Lamu Road, Isiolo–Wajir Road, Kericho–Kisumu Road, Nairobi–Narok Road, and Garissa–Habaswein–Wajir Road.

The education sector faces a particularly delicate situation as the rains are expected to coincide with the national examination period.

However, the Ministry of Education stated that national examinations cannot be postponed or delayed.

To minimise disruptions, the Ministry of Education plans to map examination centres in advance and relocate candidates where necessary.

Where roads become impassable, authorities will resort to air transport and drones to deliver examination materials.

The ministry also warned that boarding schools could face food shortages if heavy rains disrupt supply routes, advising institutions in vulnerable areas to stock adequate food supplies.

Schools affected by flooding may also have to adjust learning schedules, including allowing pupils to report earlier and leave before afternoon rains intensify.

It’s anticipated that the rains could also damage school infrastructure, while the traditional use of schools as evacuation centres could further disrupt learning and expose classrooms and equipment to damage.

But the ministry warned counties against using schools as rescue shelters to avoid disruption of learning.

The health sector, meanwhile, is preparing for a possible rise in waterborne and vector-borne diseases, including cholera, malaria, chikungunya and dengue fever.

Health officials said flooding could trigger injuries, trauma and deaths, while displacement and overcrowding could create conditions favourable for the spread of communicable diseases.

Flooding could also compromise water, sanitation and hygiene facilities, including toilets and pit latrines, increasing the risk of disease outbreaks.

The Ministry of Health plans to strengthen disease surveillance, reposition medical supplies and equipment, maintain buffer stocks and deploy mobile clinics and medical camps in areas where health facilities become inaccessible.

The rains could also worsen food insecurity and malnutrition among vulnerable populations, prompting plans for food supplementation, screening and treatment, as well as additional nutrition support.

Mental health and psychosocial support will also be required for communities that lose homes, livelihoods or loved ones during floods and landslides.

The Disaster Risk Management sector has warned of possible loss of lives through drowning and travel accidents, particularly as people attempt to cross flooded rivers, roads and other moving bodies of water.

To mitigate disruption, the transport sector, NDOC boss said the county governors and county commissioners have been instructed to ensure that the airstrips are serviceable for evacuation delivery of relief and emergency items and for smooth last mile transport.

Helicopters may be deployed to deliver food, mosquito nets and medical supplies to areas that become inaccessible by road. The Kenya Defence Forces (KDF) has also been requested to remain on standby to support Casualty Evacuation (CASEVAC) and Search and Rescue (SAR) missions during the OND season.

Speed boats will also be secured for water transportation, rescue and evacuation. Samoei said that the speed boats will be handy to help residents cross over the points where roads will be cut off.

Training for divers are ongoing across the country and preparedness for rescue teams in case of drowning.

Search and Rescue (SAR) teams will be pre-positioned in identified hotspots, with boats and other response equipment made available in areas including Garissa, Gamba, the Coast region, Baringo, Naivasha, Kisumu, Turkana and Busia.

“We must move from climate information to early action. The expected rainfall during the OND season presents both risks and opportunities. Above-average rainfall in some areas can contribute to improved water availability. But at the same time, intense rainfall can increase the risk of flooding, landslides, disease outbreaks, damage to infrastructure, and disruptions of livelihoods,” PS Ng’enoh warned.

“From previous seasons, including El Nino events, it is clear that the cost of preparedness is far lower than the cost of responding after disasters occur. And I think that is what we are doing here,” he added.