El Nino: Kenya's double disaster as millions face fresh crisis

For months, communities across parts of Kenya and the wider Eastern Africa have been living under the shadow of immense heat and inadequate rainfall.

Pastoralists have watched rapid diminishing of pasture and water while farmers have had to cope with low rainfall leading to poor crop performance.

Families that depend directly on the weather for food and income have had little choice but to adjust their lives around an increasingly uncertain climate.

And now the warning has changed. As the June-September season draws to a close, climate scientists are looking towards another extreme weather of extremely heavy rainfall during the October-December season with large parts of Kenya expected to receive above-normal rainfall.

Kenya and the Greater Horn of Africa region is transitioning from a season of depressed rainfall and temperatures higher than normal, into a season in which excessive rainfall, flooding, flash floods and landslides could become major disasters.

The 74th Greater Horn of Africa Climate Outlook Forum, convened by the ICPAC in Kigali,Rwanda this week warned of enhanced rainfall across much of the equatorial and southern Greater Horn of Africa during October-December.

According to the forecast, there will be heavy rainfall in Kenya and the Greater Horn of Africa as a result of a Very Strong El Niño and a strong positive Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD).

El Niño is a climate phenomenon that alters temperature and rainfall patterns in different parts of the world.In East Africa region, the impact of El Niño is influenced by other climate drivers, including the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD).

The IOD refers to differences in sea surface temperatures between the western and eastern Indian Ocean. A positive IOD occurs when waters in the western Indian Ocean, including those near the east African coast, are warmer while waters towards Australia are cooler.

The forecast shows a more than a 75 per cent probability of a positive IOD and a 96 per cent chance of a very strong El Nino during the October-November-December rainfall season."What we are expecting in 2026 is a very strong El Nino, with over 90 percent probability that this could be a very strong El Nino. We are also seeing over 75 per cent probability that we'll be having a positive Indian Ocean Dipole," said Hannah Kimani, head of Public Weather Services at the Kenya Meteorological Services.

The forecast shows that over 1.5 million Kenyans will be severely affected by floods, estimated 500, 000 people could be displaced by floods while another 450, could be affected by mudslides, rockfalls and landslides

The heavy rainfall is expected to affect most countries in the IGAD region including Kenya, Uganda, Somalia, Ethiopia, South Sudan and Tanzania.

Regionally, the forecast shows that North Eastern and some parts of Central Kenya, Central to Southern Somalia and South Eastern Ethiopia will experience above-average rainfall.

Some regions are likely to receive up to 500 millimeters of rainfall depending on the strength of the positive IOD .

According to Kimani, the IOD is currently neutral but is expected to turn positive, potentially amplifying the rainfall associated with El Nino.

As of July 20, the IOD stood at 0.25 degrees Celsius, but forecasts showed more than a 60 per cent probability of it becoming positive, with the probability rising above 70 per cent in September and peaking around November and December.

She emphasized that a strong IOD combined with a very strong El Nino Kimani could result in severe weather.

“Ordinarily, when we are having a combined effect of positive Indian Ocean Dipole and El Nino, a strong El Nino, we’re likely to see an increase in the intensity of the amounts of rainfall that we may receive, with a possibility of having very, very intense rainfall episodes during the season,” she said.

ICPAC’s forecast also points to an elevated probability of exceptionally wet conditions in parts of eastern Kenya, with some areas showing probabilities above 90 per cent.

For Kenya, the forecast indicates that OND short rains season will bring above-normal rainfall across the entire country. This reality complicates the lives of communities whose livelihoods depend on predictable seasons.

In Mandera, Wajir, Garissa and Marsabit, the forecast assigns a 90 per cent probability of above-normal rainfall, which is the highest confidence level in the entire regional outlook.

For a region that is just transitioning from one of the most brutal dry seasons in years, the forecast of October-December should be good news but according to climate experts, it is not.

“For pastoralists in arid and semi-arid areas, flooding is not a bad thing. It's good news because they'll harvest quite a lot of water. But this one will come with displacement. Transportation will also be affected because some roads and bridges will be cut off,” said Jully Ouma, ICPAC’s lead on early warning systems.

The warning comes with authorities and communities having a narrow window to prepare for what could be a repeat of the devastation witnessed during the 2023 rains, when floods killed people and livestock, destroyed infrastructure, disrupted the school calendar and cut off communities from essential services.

Meteorologists predict early onset across the North Eastern region, with worse devastation.

In 1997, the last time El Niño and the Indian Ocean Dipole aligned this strongly, the seasonal Tana River tributaries rose six feet in six hours, sweeping away goats, camels, and herders The predictions show that the OND could be greater than 1997 and 2023 El Nino which bear similarities as 2026 El Nino conditions.

ICPAC identifies 1997 and 2023 as relevant analogue years because both were associated with wetter-than-normal conditions over much of the region during OND.

The 1997-98 El Niño became one of East Africa’s defining climate disasters, while the 2023 short rains were also associated with severe flooding across parts of the region.

According to climate experts, there is a 96 percent chance that the 2026 El Nino will be very strong with a 97 percent chance that it will persist into early 2027.

During the last El Nino, 43 of Kenya’s 47 counties were affected, with northeastern counties among the worst hit.

The preliminary risk analysis for the coming October-November-December season places Mandera, Wajir, Marsabit, Tana River, Lamu and Garissa among the areas of concern.

Among the anticipated effects in livestock-production areas include conflict due to displacement associated with floods in Djibouti, Tanzania, Kenya, Somaliland, Uganda, upsurge of Listerious and aflatoxin due to mould feeds, destruction of infrastructure and reservoirs, livestock deaths.

Other impacts are outbreak of Rift Valley Fever, environmental pollution, outbreak of waterborne diseases, eternal parasites among others.

Other areas likely to face heightened risks as the rains intensify include parts of the Rift Valley and counties around Lake Victoria, including Homa Bay, Kisumu and Siaya.

Areas that have historically experienced mudslides and landslides, including West Pokot, Elgeyo-Marakwet, Nakuru and Murang’a are also classified as risky areas.

Communities living around major rivers and lakes including Tana, Ewaso, Rift Valley and Lake Victoria, alongside the Lake Turkana system are also at risk of facing riverine flooding.The risk is particularly serious where dams and reservoirs receive large volumes of inflow.

“If the dams are not able to contain that too much surface inflow of the water, then at the end of the day, we are likely to see excess outflow of the water, and this outflow is the one which is likely to affect the downstream communities,” Zachary Osiani from Kenya Meteorological Service.

He cited the Tana River system, where downstream communities from Garissa towards the Tana Delta could be exposed.

According to Ouma, the rainfall will hit the country when infrastructure, communities and livelihoods are already exposed to vulnerabilities following repeated climate shocks characterised by succession of droughts, floods, harvest losses and livestock deaths, leaving communities and systems with little time to recover.

“For communities, it's more or less like a back-to-back hazard, and they normally don't have room to prepare for the next one.It's not good news for them because the system does not get enough time to recover,” he added.

The coming wet season follows a punishing dry spell that has already pushed the region’s food security to breaking point.

Oliver Kipkogei , a regional agrometeorologist at ICPAC, described the June- September season as devastating for agriculture across the Greater Horn of Africa.

In Kenya’s breadbasket areas such as Uasin Gishu, Kitale, Western region and parts of the North Rift, nearly 100 per cent of agricultural land showed critical anomalies as crops wilted due to poor rainfall.

The same pattern was replicated in Ethiopia’s Rift Valley and across Sudan and South Sudan.

"The food security situation in the region is dire.In six countries, we have 24 million people in IPC Phase 3 and above," said Kipkogei adding that the situation of food insecurity was exacerbated by other factors including conflicts, currency depreciation and rising fuel costs and now the coming rains might worsen things.

"This is the exact fingerprint of climate change. We are transitioning from one extreme to the other. From drought to an expectation of a wet weather extreme. Climate change is characterized by enhanced intensity and frequency of extreme events," he added.

For farmers, the OND season represents both catastrophe and possibility. Kipkogei explained that the regional agricultural calendar is split between unimodal and bimodal seasons.

Unimodal season is where one long season runs from March to September, with harvesting expected in late October through December, and bimodal areas, where the second planting season begins in October for harvest in January-February.

The unimodal breadbasket areas of Western Kenya and the North Rift, are expected to produce 30 percent or more below normal levels of harvest.

But for bimodal areas like Machakos, Makueni, the short rains season is when planting happens, meaning torrential rainfall could disrupt the agricultural cycle. Although the Eastern region is expected to have early onset, heavy downpour may not be favourable for seeds germination.

“If we do not put in place mitigative measures, we may not take advantage of this coming season. Excess moisture brings its own threats of waterlogging, fungal diseases, and crop rot. Governments are really urged to ensure proper pest and disease surveillance," Kipkogei warned.

The experts nevertheless stressed that the rains could bring benefits, particularly to farmers and pastoralists in areas currently experiencing dry conditions.

Lake backflow is another concern, with communities around Lake Victoria and other lakes facing possible displacement.

The forecast probability map identifies western Kenya and the Lake Victoria Basin as one of the regions most likely to exceed 400 millimetres of rainfall this season.

Kakamega, Bungoma, Busia, Vihiga, Kisumu, Siaya, Homa Bay, Migori, Kisii, and Nyamira all sit in this zone.

However, the western region will have a delayed onset meaning farmers in those areas will wait weeks longer than their counterparts in the east for planting rains, hence compressing a growing season that is already short.

For sugarcane farmers in Mumias, Busia, and Muhoroni, waterlogging could be the major threat, hence low yields. Rice farmers are also anticipated to suffer losses due to floods.

The Nairobi-Garissa corridor is a particular concern with disaster managers pointing that the road was cut off eight times in the last season, while the route from Garissa towards Wajir was at one point so badly affected that humanitarian organisations struggled to respond.

Other vulnerable corridors include roads towards Tana River and Lamu, as well as sections in Isiolo and Marsabit.Sambaki Bridge in Malindi is particularly projected to be damaged if the downpour materialises as projected.

The anticipated early onset of the October-November rains coincides with the period when schools are expected to continue learning, raising the possibility of pupils and teachers being unable to access schools because of flooded or damaged roads.

The displacement of people by floods worsens the risk of public health emergencies, as overcrowding in temporary shelters creates ideal conditions for disease transmission.

With the health sector already stretched by existing burdens, the coming rains could overwhelm systems unprepared for a surge in emergency cases.

With the growth of population in informal settlements since the major 1997 El Nino event, higher demand for roads, water, health services and other infrastructure, the El Nino could have much larger consequences.

Kenya now has up to September to identify hotspots, strengthen preparedness, activate contingency plans and put early-action measures in place.

The experts urged authorities to strengthen disease surveillance, secure safe drinking water, prepare health facilities, reposition relief supplies, advise farmers and pastoralists, vaccinate livestock where necessary and strengthen risk communication to the last mile.