CBE nightmare: 151,691 pioneer learners drop out before reaching Grade 10

An alarming number of learners are quietly slipping out of the school system.

A new national assessment shows that as learners move up the system, both their numbers and performance begin to decline, revealing deep cracks beneath the transition system.

At least 151,691 pioneer Competency-Based Education learners have dropped out before reaching Grade 10, raising alarm over retention gaps in education, the Kenya National Examination Council says.

The report tracks a cohort of 1,282,150 learners who were enrolled in Grade 3 in 2019, offering one of the clearest pictures yet of how students are progressing through the new system. By 2022, 1,253,577 of them, about 91 per cent, sat the Kenya Primary School Education Assessment (KPSEA).

But as the cohort advances, some of the learners drop along the way.

By the time these learners reached Grade 9, only 1,130,459 remained to sit the Kenya Junior School Education Assessment (KJSEA).

This translates to a retention rate of 88.17 per cent, meaning at least 151,691 learners had dropped out along the way.

Findings presented by KNEC education expert Joseph Githinji at the 3rd Annual Educational Assessment Symposium paint a complex picture of a system that has achieved near-universal access at early stages but is struggling to sustain both participation and quality learning outcomes through to Grade 9.

This means that nearly 12 per cent of learners who started in Grade 3 are no longer in the system by the end of junior secondary, a statistic that has raised red flags among education stakeholders.

“This gradual attrition signals systemic challenges that go beyond access. Retention remains relatively high, but the loss of learners along the way is significant enough to demand urgent intervention,” said Githinji.

While the transition rate from Grade 3 to Grade 6 stands at an impressive 96.9 per cent, indicating that most learners successfully navigate lower and upper primary, the majority of them struggle to keep up with the system as academic demands grow.

The data also shows that nearly 12 per cent of learners who started in Grade 3 are no longer in school by the end of junior secondary.

For education stakeholders, this is a warning that needs intervention.

Beyond dropout rates, the report paints an equally concerning picture of declining academic performance. 

Learners begin their journey with relatively strong foundational skills, reflected in a performance index of 55.7 in Grade 3.

However, this steadily drops to 39.0 by Grade 9, signalling a loss of learning momentum as students progress through school.

“Strong foundation at Grade 3, decline through upper primary, and plateau at junior school,” Githinji added.

KNEC also noted that by the time learners reach upper primary and junior secondary, many are no longer mastering content but just coping.

A majority are clustered in the “Approaching Expectation” band, just below full competency.

Experts say this trend reveals a system that is effective at introducing basic concepts but struggles to build deeper understanding.

“CBC implementation is yielding strong outcomes in applied learning, but requires stronger reinforcement of foundational theory and conceptual understanding,” the report states.

Indeed, one of the most striking patterns emerging from the data is the widening gap between practical and theoretical learning.

Learners consistently perform better in hands-on, project-based tasks, hallmarks of the CBC approach, than in theory-heavy subjects such as mathematics, languages, and reading comprehension.

This imbalance becomes more evident as learners advance to higher levels, where abstract thinking and conceptual mastery are essential.

As a result, many students find themselves ill-equipped to tackle the increasing complexity of the curriculum, contributing to both declining performance and eventual dropout.

Compounding the problem are persistent equity gaps that continue to shape learning outcomes across the country.

The report highlights significant disparities affecting older-age learners who are older than the expected age for their grade. In some regions, particularly in arid and semi-arid areas, over half of learners fall into this category.

These learners consistently underperform compared to their peers and are more likely to fall into lower performance bands.

“Over-age learners consistently lag, underscoring the need for timely school entry, targeted remediation, and differentiated instructional support,” Githinji noted.

Learners with disabilities also face steep challenges.

While the report acknowledges that they can achieve high competency levels when adequately supported, it underscores the persistent barriers they encounter from limited access to assistive technologies to inadequate teacher training in inclusive education.

“Significant disparities persist for learners with disabilities, highlighting the need for strengthened inclusive education practices,” the finding states.

Those with hearing and visual impairments, in particular, recorded high rates in the “below expectation” category across subjects such as mathematics, integrated science, and languages.

Gender disparities, though less pronounced, remain visible. Girls tend to outperform boys in literacy-based subjects, while boys are disproportionately represented among lower-performing learners.

Together, these gaps paint a picture of an education system where not all learners are moving forward equally and where vulnerability often translates into lower achievement and higher dropout risk.

The transition to junior secondary, one of the most significant shifts under CBE, is also emerging as a critical pressure point.

While the country has achieved near-universal transition at this stage, questions are growing about whether schools are adequately equipped to support learners through the more demanding curriculum.

Teacher preparedness remains a key concern. The shift to competency-based education requires new teaching approaches, particularly in delivering theory-heavy content and assessing higher-order thinking skills.

Yet many teachers continue to grapple with these demands.

“Improved teacher capacity, formative assessment use, and resourcing, especially for theory delivery, digital literacy, and abstract concepts, are critical,” the report emphasises.

Resource constraints further complicate the situation, particularly in under-resourced schools where access to learning materials and technology remains limited.

For analysts, the implications are clear. Without targeted interventions, the country risks producing a generation of learners who progress through school without mastering essential competencies.

The findings come at a pivotal moment, as Kenya continues to roll out CBE nationwide. The curriculum’s emphasis on skills, creativity, and learner-centred approaches has shown promise, particularly in early grades.

Githinji notes that sustaining these gains through the entire education cycle is proving far more difficult, with stakeholders calling for expanding access.

“There is a need to strengthen conceptual learning and ensure no learner is left behind,” Githinji said.