Why Jailing Kabila and Malema is a ticket to chaos

The news of guilty verdicts against former Democratic Republic of Congo President Joseph Kabila and radical South African politician Julius Malema is laughable by any standard.

Mr Malema, leader of South Africa’s Economic Freedom Fighters, was convicted of discharging a firearm in a public area during an anti-establishment rally in 2018.

Over to Kinshasa, a military court found Mr Kabila guilty of collaborating with or supporting the M23 rebel group. He was sentenced to death, his other crimes being murder, rape and deportations. But practically speaking, how would jailing Mr Kabila stabilise the DRC’s fragile peace? And how does deploying the criminal justice system to gag Mr Malema guarantee South Africa’s white minority peace of mind or protection from alleged racial genocide?

Here is my two cents. DRC President Félix Tshisekedi is relying more on political instinct than intellectual rigour. It isn’t lost on us that he is, in fact, a political creation of Mr Kabila. It is thus short-sighted for him to tempt fate by imprisoning the very man who installed him as president.

Those familiar with Congolese politics say Mr Tshisekedi has never truly won an election, but remains in office through behind-the-scenes deals by powerful forces. Further, he has perfected the art of finger-pointing and blaming others like Rwanda’s Paul Kagame whenever DRC erupts.  

Meanwhile in South Africa, it’s unclear why President Cyril Ramaphosa and his administration are so determined to elevate Mr Malema’s profile and relevance. Following this week’s ruling, I can already see Mr Malema drawing huge political capital. Even US President Donald Trump recently accused him of various unproven racial provocations. Is Mr Malema this petrifying?

Let’s face the facts. Some individuals are larger than life, thanks to their ideologies and mass public appeal. Forget Tanzania’s Tundu Lissu, South Sudan’s Riek Machar and Uganda’s Kizza Besigye who’re harangued before courts and nothing happens. In Kenya, opposition chief Raila Odinga wasn’t arrested for his 2018 mock presidential swearing in – one of the biggest crimes. Why? He has support of at least half the country, and his fans are fiercely loyal.   

Lesson? Some leaders have a big sway such that ‘harassing’ them can send a regime packing. Just like Mr Odinga, Mr Kabila and Mr Malema aren’t above the law but certainly, jailing them has grave ramifications like street protests no one can handle. Thus, the courts must beware of the prevailing circumstances when making delicate rulings. Jailing them can be a ticket to chaos. There’ve been efforts to restore peace in eastern DRC. The US and Qatar are actively involved through various agreements. However, President Tshisekedi must be called out for resorting to theatrics instead of seeking peace. History is unlikely to judge him kindly. Similarly, the South African regime should focus on ‘other things’ and forget Mr Malema for once.  

This isn’t to exonerate Mr Kabila or Mr Malema. Certainly, it’s a badge of infamy that the former ANC Youth League leader spews racially divisive rhetoric against fellow citizens and ignores the potential consequences, including diplomatic isolation from the US and other traditional allies.

Mr Kabila, too, has been involved in underhand maneuvers in eastern DRC, particularly in Goma where he resides. He must now own up. Historically, there’s a troubling entitlement among certain politicians such that they proclaim ‘this is our country,’ as if dissent or accountability is an affront. Such mindset worsens crises instead of resolving them.

Mr Malema and other ‘loud mouths’ are what African countries don’t need at this stage of globalisation. Populist rhetoric, especially in the face of serious challenges like high cost of living, unemployment and a growing sense of hopelessness, is counterproductive in a global ecosystem driven by ethical leadership.

Populists project a know-it-all image, but have no solutions, not even the most basic ones. Beyond activism, what way has Mr Malema contributed to South Africa’s development in terms of human capital, infrastructure or institutional strengthening? Likewise, we can’t forget how Mr Kabila’s 2001 to 2019 tenure was defined by failure. Sadly, however, jailing them would be still suicidal.

-The writer is a communications practitioner.