Senate Speaker Kingi's political quagmire

Senate Speaker Amason Kingi is caught between a hard place and a rock.

He appears to be in a political war against President William Ruto after he declared that his Pamoja Africa Alliance (PAA) will field a candidate in the November 27 Magarini by-election.

Kingi's decision to give economic empowerment meetings, headed by Deputy President Kithure Kindiki, at Coast region the a wider berth has not gone down well with UDA loyalists in the region.

At the Coast, he is also facing fierce rivalry from ODM leader Raila Odinga's brigade, led by Mining and Blue Economy Affairs Cabinet Secretary Hassan Joho and Kilifi Governor Gideon Mung'aro

And with Ruto and Raila working on an equation for a favourable by-election and 2027 outcome, Kingi who has vowed to stick with PAA appears to be a man out of the political equation.

Political pundits argue that Kingi, who abandoned Raila’s Azimio coalition for Ruto’s Kenya Kwanza close to the 2022 general election, is walking on a tightrope as the clock ticks towards the November 27 Magarini by-election and the 2027 general election.

They argue that if PAA fails to capture the Magarini parliamentary seat, where he launched his sterling political career in 2007, it might dim his star and render him politically irrelevant.

So high are stakes in the Magirini by-election, that Kingi is fronted his young brother, Michael Kingi, who served the constituents between 2017 to 2022.

The young Kingi, who decamped from ODM to PAA in the 2022 election, came a distance third in the race that was won by Kombe of ODM while UDA's  Stanley Kenga was the runners up.

Kenga successfully petition against Kombe's win. For Kombe, Kenga and Kingi, Magarini by-election will be a rematch, but analysts say it is a do or die for the Speaker's political career. 

Political analyst Hassan Mwakimako observed that Mr Kingi could be in a catch-22 situation because he has little to bring to the national voter basket in the next polls, going by his last general election performance and his silence in the political arena currently.

“Kingi is seen to be not strong in his political party or his community. He does not control his county or counties. He is seen not to fit in the current political arrangement. He is slowly being phased out because he does not bring anything to the basket. He is therefore being abandoned,” Prof. Mwakimako argued.

According to Mwakimako, Kingi needs to go to the ground and explain to the people why he wants them to vote for PAA’s candidate and not ODM or the United Democratic Alliance (UDA) after leaving the Coast political scene for a long time.

“He has to be on the ground to articulate issues and tell the electorate why they should elect a PAA MP. If he does not win against ODM and UDA, he will lose the ability to influence politics in the country, and he will be further isolated,” he stated.

Mombasa lawyer Yusuf Aboubakar noted that the Magarini by-election presents a do-or-die situation for Kingi if he goes ahead and sponsors a PAA candidate against UDA and ODM, as it may edge him out of the centre of power.

He opined that with mining, the blue economy, and Maritime Affairs Cabinet Secretary Hassan Joho being active in President Ruto’s economic empowerment project and inclining towards the president’s side, ODM might not have a strong foot soldier at the Coast to push for the by-election win.

The former Shirikisho Party of Kenya (SPK) secretary general opined that UDA might splash cash to win Magarini against the growing opposition wave, fuelled by former Deputy President Rigathi Gachagua, which may make the race gruelling for both ODM and PAA.

“I do not see ODM or PAA giving much funding for their candidates in Magarini. However, UDA is likely to splash cash to win the seat against the opposition, particularly Gachagua,” he noted.

According to Aboubakar, the popularity of the candidate and the political party will be a factor in Magarini, although the financial muscle will likely tilt the vote there.

Aboubakar argued that there is a slimmer chance for fringe political parties at the Coast to clinch the prized Magarini seat that has a bearing on the 2027 elections.

The fringe parties in the region are mainly PAA, the Kadu Asili Party of Kenya, and Shirikisho, as the Umoja Summit Party of Kenya (USPK) was taken over by allies of Prime Cabinet Secretary Mr Musalia Mudavadi, including Dr Barrack Muluka, and rebranded as the Democratic National Alliance (DNA).

“Kingi joined Kenya Kwanza, and I do not see him breaking away from it and posing a formidable challenge in Magarini. And because his party did not perform in 2022, he is likely to have a daunting task in Magarini. He also lacks the financial muscle against UDA,” he observed.

The sacking of vocal politician Ms Aisha Jumwa from the Cabinet is viewed as a political blow to UDA in Kilifi County, as she may not command the influence she wielded during the 2022 campaigns for the party.

In ODM, the conflict between county party chairman Teddy Mwambire and governor Mung'aro, which recently led to the impeachment of the former as Kilifi county assembly speaker, is also seen to have caused disunity in the Orange Democratic Movement ahead of the poll.

In Kilifi County, leaders from the political divide are already burning the midnight oil as they scheme to win the seat.

The ODM team led by Governor Gideon Mung’aro is pushing to have immediate former MP Harrison Kombe handed the party ticket. Magarini ODM chairman Justin Baya declared support for Kombe.

Magarini politician Mr Emmanuel Kadenge announced that he will back Kombe during the by-election.

“I will not challenge Kombe. I have assured Mung’aro that we will fully back Kombe in the by-election,” he said.

Kenga is reported to have embarked on mobilising resources even as he prepares for the political duel with Kombe, hoping to edge him out.

Mr Gachagua’s Magarini point man, Mr Furaha Chengo Ngumbao, alias Kalama Wehu, a former personal assistant to a political advisor in the office of the President, has also declared interest in running for the Magarini seat.

Kingi has since rejected a request by UDA to back its candidate because the two outfits do not have an agreement stipulating that his party should not present a candidate in a by-election.

“We have completed plans to have PAA candidate Michael Thoya Kingi recapture the Magarini parliamentary seat during the by-election on November 27 this year,” he stated.

Michael, who is his younger brother, lost the seat to Mr Kombe in the 2022 general election when he defended the seat on a PAA ticket.

Kingi warned political party leaders intending to sponsor campaigns for their candidates against introducing violence during the campaign. He exuded confidence that PAA had done a grassroots campaign and was ready for the by-election.

“We started planning how to capture the seat immediately after the Supreme Court declared the seat vacant, and that is why we are sure of recapturing the seat,” said Kingi.

Kingi claimed both ODM and UDA popularity had diminished in the Coast region, and that is why his party is poised to recapture the seat.

Other areas set for parliamentary by-elections are Baringo County (Senate seat) and the Malava, Banisa, Kasipul, Mbere North, and Ugunja constituencies.