Winds of change: Why power of incumbency is now irrelevant

There are three things that are certain in life. Taxes, death and an incumbent African president never losing an election, or so it is said on the popular culture horizons. 

Most African countries are democracies, with allowance for elections, which are always flawed, rigged and predetermined. 

Nothing sums it better than Soviet dictator Josef Stalin “People who cast the votes decide nothing. The people who count the votes decide everything.” 

Lately, there has been a wind of change blowing across Africa, Lazarus McCarthy Chakwera could be swept away, going by the trend in the continent and in Malawi, as the tallying of the votes comes to a conclusion. 

The 70-year-old could be the outgoing one-term president if the trend showing the man he beat in 2020, 85-year-old Peter Mutharika, continues to lead in the count.   

A fervent bible thumping and gospel quoting Christian, Chakwera, was president of the Malawi Assemblies of God from 1989 to 2013. He rode to power on a gospel of promises, and man of God image that resonated with the rural Malawi population. However, none of the promises he made were fulfilled. 

The son of a school teacher, Chakwera not only preached the gospel, but he added good academic qualifications to his name, boasting theology degrees from the University of the North in South Africa, a master’s degree from the University of South Africa in 1991 and a doctorate in divinity from Trinity International University in the United States.

Apart from preaching the gospel, he also taught it, as a professor at the Pan-Africa Theological Seminary since 2005.

Upon rising to power and within the first one week, the bible and its teaching were cast aside as he borrowed heavily from an African president’s hand book.

Chakwera’s 31-member Cabinet announced after inauguration, had six members who were relatives. More than 70 per cent of the ministers were from his Chewa tribe. He defended his decision. 

No longer drinking or serving church wine to his flock, Chakwera got drunk on executive power. He literally interpreted 1 Timothy 5:8 “If anyone does not provide for relatives, and members of his family, he has denied the faith and is worse than an unbeliever.” Buoyed by faith and fatherly love, he signed a letter appointing his daughter Violet Chakwera, who had a degree from unaccredited university, as a diplomatic secretary to Brussels and for the EU. His Vice President Saulos Chilima’s mother-in-law was also posted to a diplomatic position.

According to World Bank data, under Chakwera, Malawi’s economy slowed GDP growth due to drought, foreign exchange shortages, and inflation remaining high above 30 per cent, the highest in Africa. The report was published on September 10, 2025. 

Malawi has been plagued by acute fuel shortages, with long queues at petrol stations. The rising cost of living has also been a major concern of voters. So dire is the situation that in an interview with BBC, Suzanna Kathumba a Malawian woman said she stopped her children from playing because she can’t afford soap to wash dirty clothes. “But it’s hard because children are children, they want to play, “ said the 43-year-old.

The 7.2 million Malawians registered to vote have 17 candidates to choose from, and as results flocked in, Chakwera’s chance of a ‘two term’ presidency started looking slim.

In February, after protests erupted in Lilongwe over cost-of-living, Chakwera told Parliament that he wasn’t to blame for the hyperinflation in the country. He claimed investigation by intelligence services revealed some traders were colluding with the opposition to fuel inflation so as to destabilise the government. Another factor that has irked Malawians is rampant corruption in Chakwera’s government. His deputy, Chilima, was charged in 2022 with soliciting for bribes to award tenders to specific companies. The charges were dropped controversially. 

Malawi’s head of the Anti-Corruption Bureau Martha Chizuma, locally known as ‘the legal bulldozer’ tried investigating a Sh6.5 billion ($50 million) procurement fraud and bribery scandal linked to Lilongwe Asian Businessman Zuneth Sattar but was violently kidnapped and taken to court on trumped up charges. Just like Kenya, kidnapping of government critics was a sure way of silencing dissent. Due to pressure from the executive, Chizuma’s contract at the high voltage job wasn’t renewed. 

Acknowledging corruption is a way of life, in January 2022, Chakwera dissolved his Cabinet. Ministers had been accused of bribery, land deal corruption, misappropriation of COVID-19 funds and conflict of interest in fuel import contracts. 

“There is a lot happening, especially concerning about forex, unemployment,” Rachel Chaguza, a 26-year-old university graduate who sells flowers, told AFP after voting.

“We must scrutinise what is going wrong and change things for the better.”

“There is anger in us. I want to change this government. I want young people to be in good jobs,” Ettah Nyasulu, a 28-year-old waitress told the AFP press agency before heading out to vote. These were some sentiment from voters.

The wind of change earlier swept through Botswana last year. In early November, Botswana’s president, Mokgweetsi Masisi, conceded defeat when his party lost by a landslide after 58 years in power. Masisi’s humbling loss was majorly because of high youth unemployment and a lagging economy with shortages of medicine and affordability of basics for the population.

Just like Kenya, Malawi and Botswana, another third world country where the strong wind of change has been toppling regimes is Nepal. Last week, the Gen Z revolution in Nepal was undertaken by youth aged 13 to 28 who mobilised on social media platforms to organise protests and later select an interim government leader digitally.
The youth were triggered by rampant corruption, nepotism by the political class, (especially “nepo kids,” children of powerful politicians), and ban on major social media platforms.

Halimu Shauri, a sociologist who teaches at Pwani University says the wind of change sweeping across Africa has been simmering for a while.

“When it comes to political processes, citizens express displeasure in three ways, they either vote a leader out, or they voice their discontentment through demonstrations or lastly, they choose silence. When silence is chosen, leaders should be very afraid,” says Prof Shauri.

Alfred Omenya, a political commentator and good governance advocate says the Gen Z demonstrations that happened in Kenya this year were an indicator of a failing government.

“The remedy President Ruto had for the Gen Z problem was so basic, it’s cleaning your house, you collect the dirt and hide it under the carpet. Over time, even though you can’t see the dirt, the house will start stinking.”
He says Kenyans at the moment are tired and have let the executive do whatever it wants.

Activist Cyprian Nyamwamu says the change Kenya needs won’t come from the current crop of politicians but from the youth.

He says: “Kenyans are generally peaceful so it will be the silent Gen-Z vote that will reject this corrupt reign that has utter disregard for freedom and justice. More than 78 per cent of Kenyans say the country is headed in the wrong direction and 69 per cent believe President Ruto is responsible for the wrong direction Kenya is headed.” 

Bishop David Muriithi, the founder and general overseer of House of Grace church says the wind of change is not only blowing across the continent, but also in households.

He avers: “We are raising a generation that will ask questions. We were to be seen and not to be heard. The youth are questioning us. They want to have a conversation. Out of the house, the Gen Z are asking leaders for accountability.”