Sudan's sovereignty in peril as army, RSF dig in amid failed peace efforts

Across East Africa, cycles of liberation and repression have left deep scars. South Sudan’s independence, mediated in Kenya, was heralded as a historic victory but came after decades of war.

Somalia has yet to recover from the collapse of Siyaad Barre, and Ethiopia’s fragile renaissance under Meles Zenawi unravelled into ethnic violence after his death.

In Sudan, the promise of democratic transition has given way to another chapter of authoritarianism and civil war, now entering its third year.

General Abdel Fattah al-Burhan, Sudan’s army chief, has remained at the heart of this storm since seizing power in an October 2021 coup.

His decisions, often unilateral, have provoked fierce debate. The most controversial came when he recognised Egypt’s sovereignty over the disputed Hala'ib and Shalateen triangle, inhabited by Sudanese tribes with cultural ties to Khartoum.

Sudanese writer Othman Mirghani described the move as a “political sale of land in return for staying in power,” while a former diplomat warned it set “a dangerous precedent in Sudan’s modern history.”

Last week, al-Burhan sharpened his stance further. Speaking on the centenary of Sudan’s armed forces, he vowed there would be no compromise with the paramilitary Rapid Support Forces (RSF), who have been at war with the army for more than two years.

He pledged to continue the “battle for dignity, to defeat the rebellion, and to make neither compromise nor reconciliation, whatever the cost.”

His remarks came just days after a confidential meeting in Switzerland with US Africa envoy Massad Boulos. Two Sudanese government sources said the discussions centred on a new American peace plan, though earlier mediation efforts led by Washington and Riyadh have failed to deliver a ceasefire.

At the same time, the RSF under General Mohamed Hamdan Dagalo, widely known as Hemedti, has tried to cement its grip on territory in western Sudan by declaring a parallel administration. The move drew sharp condemnation from the United Nations Security Council, which labelled it “a direct threat to Sudan’s unity and territorial integrity.”

Hemedti’s path to power has been marked by both wealth and violence. Born in Darfur in the 1970s, he left school early and became a camel trader before joining the Janjaweed militia after an ambush killed 60 relatives. His rise was rapid. During the Darfur war of 2003–2005, which international observers described as genocide, Hemedti carved out a reputation as a ruthless commander. By 2013, he had restructured the Janjaweed into the RSF, which became central to Omar al-Bashir’s regime. In exchange for loyalty, Hemedti was granted gold concessions that made him one of Sudan’s richest men. “I am not the first man to have gold mines,” he once told the BBC. “It is true, we have gold mines, and there is nothing preventing us from working in gold.”

His forces, however, were accused of atrocities, from ethnic cleansing to sexual violence. Washington sanctioned both Hemedti and companies linked to the RSF. In 2019, after helping topple Bashir, he joined Sudan’s transitional military council but soon became associated with the Khartoum massacre, where over 100 pro-democracy protesters were killed. By 2021, his uneasy alliance with al-Burhan fractured over the planned integration of the RSF into the army. Their rivalry exploded into open war by April 2023.

The toll has been catastrophic. Tens of thousands have been killed, and more than 13 million people displaced, creating what aid groups call the world’s worst hunger and displacement crisis. In Darfur alone, over 10,500 civilians have died in what survivors describe as targeted ethnic cleansing.

International pressure is mounting. On Thursday, the European Union, joined by Britain, Canada, Japan and others, called on all parties to “urgently” grant access to aid as Sudan grapples with its worst cholera outbreak in years. “Civilians must be protected, and humanitarian access must be granted,” the EU statement read.

Meanwhile, attempts at diplomacy continue unevenly. In Nairobi, the RSF recently cancelled a planned press briefing to announce its political roadmap, citing logistical issues. The group had earlier hinted at forming a parallel government, but the announcement has repeatedly been postponed.

For many Sudanese, neither al-Burhan’s military defiance nor Hemedti’s militia dominance offers hope. The World Peace Foundation has described Hemedti as “the face of Sudan’s violent political marketplace,” while analysts accuse al-Burhan of eroding sovereignty for personal survival. Ordinary civilians are left trapped between two power centres, their futures dictated by leaders unwilling to compromise.